Tue, Mar 10, 2026·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Anaheim Ducks 4, Winnipeg Jets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 08 | 320 | 17 | 435 |
| WPG | 02 | 15 | 06 | 113 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:04WPGMorgan BarronAssists: Elias Salomonsson, Cole Perfetti · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 6:24ANATim WasheAssists: Jansen Harkins, Radko Gudas · Snap, 0.24 xG1–1
- P2 6:38ANARyan PoehlingGWGAssists: Alex Killorn, Jackson LaCombe · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 8:08ANAAlex KillornAssists: Ryan Poehling · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 19:34ANAJackson LaCombeENAssists: Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.25 xG4–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 11:31ANABeckett Sennecke: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:32WPGAdam Lowry: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:40ANAJeffrey Viel: Holding2 min
- P3 14:39WPGCole Perfetti: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:01ANABeckett Sennecke: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Poehling
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestJohnston – Harkins – Washe5:53
xG 0.72–0.20 (78%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Granlund – McTavish – Sennecke11:10
xG 0.48–0.07 (88%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Killorn – Viel – Poehling10:21
xG 0.65–0.30 (69%)attempts 9–7goals 2–0
- Kreider – Gauthier – Carlsson11:56
xG 0.47–0.20 (70%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Zellweger11:19
xG 1.15–0.46 (72%)attempts 18–6goals 2–0
- LaCombe – Moore3:19
xG 0.34–0.03 (93%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Moore – Mintyukov10:35
xG 0.38–0.17 (69%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestToews – Nyquist – Rosen8:19
xG 0.59–0.06 (91%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Lowry – Vilardi – Perfetti5:29
xG 0.12–0.10 (55%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Lowry – Iafallo – Perfetti4:24
xG 0.02–0.02 (40%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Iafallo6:16
xG 0.09–0.24 (28%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Fleury – Bryson11:07
xG 0.32–0.72 (31%)attempts 3–14goals 0–2
- Samberg – Salomonsson15:01
xG 0.60–1.01 (37%)attempts 11–22goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey16:14
xG 0.13–0.62 (17%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).