Thu, Mar 12, 2026·TD Garden, Boston
San Jose Sharks 4, Boston Bruins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 17 | 111 | 210 | 428 |
| BOS | 014 | 013 | 214 | 241 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:57SJSMichael MisaAssists: William Eklund, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 14:15SJSTyler ToffoliPPAssists: Macklin Celebrini, Dmitry Orlov · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–0
- P3 3:13SJSCollin GrafSHGWGAssists: Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–0
- P3 8:20SJSWilliam EklundAssists: Sam Dickinson, Michael Misa · Bat, 0.09 xG4–0
- P3 8:30BOSFraser MintenAssists: David Pastrnak, Marat Khusnutdinov · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–1
- P3 19:07BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Casey Mittelstadt · Slap, 0.03 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:14SJSJohn Klingberg: Holding2 min
- P2 13:49BOSMason Lohrei: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:00SJSBarclay Goodrow: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:50BOSCharlie McAvoy: Elbowing2 min
- P3 19:50BOSDavid Pastrnak: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:50SJSKiefer Sherwood: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:50SJSVincent Desharnais: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Ostapchuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Eklund – Misa9:11
xG 0.50–0.26 (65%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Smith – Celebrini – Graf13:47
xG 0.84–0.66 (56%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Reaves – Goodrow – Ostapchuk6:59
xG 0.30–0.19 (61%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Wennberg – Gaudette – Sherwood11:24
xG 0.34–0.69 (33%)attempts 6–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Klingberg15:46
xG 1.36–0.86 (61%)attempts 19–21goals 1–1
- Desharnais – Dickinson16:40
xG 0.61–0.51 (54%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
- Ferraro – Mukhamadullin16:01
xG 0.34–1.34 (20%)attempts 6–24goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestArvidsson – Zacha – Mittelstadt10:53
xG 0.59–0.37 (62%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Khusnutdinov – Steeves – Minten4:01
xG 0.23–0.11 (68%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Pastrnak – Khusnutdinov3:59
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Pastrnak – Khusnutdinov – Minten2:48
xG 0.18–0.08 (70%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Lohrei11:30
xG 0.96–0.48 (67%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
- Lindholm – McAvoy6:05
xG 0.27–0.08 (77%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Aspirot – Lohrei2:21
xG 0.08–0.01 (88%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).