Thu, Mar 12, 2026·Prudential Center, Newark
Calgary Flames 5, New Jersey Devils 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 28 | 213 | 18 | 529 |
| NJD | 110 | 19 | 213 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:04CGYJohn BeecherAssists: Matvei Gridin · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 14:07CGYKevin BahlAssists: Olli Maatta, Adam Klapka · Slap, 0.01 xG2–0
- P1 16:14NJDMaxim TsyplakovAssists: Nick Bjugstad · Snap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 0:54CGYJohn BeecherSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–1
- P2 1:36NJDSimon NemecPPAssists: Luke Hughes, Jacob Markstrom · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–2
- P2 16:48CGYYegor SharangovichAssists: Ryan Strome, Victor Olofsson · Backhand, 0.16 xG4–2
- P3 4:10CGYMikael BacklundGWGAssists: Joel Farabee, Brayden Pachal · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–2
- P3 9:38NJDJack HughesAssists: Jesper Bratt, Dougie Hamilton · Snap, 0.07 xG5–3
- P3 19:56NJDLuke HughesPPAssists: Jesper Bratt, Jack Hughes · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–4
Penalties (2)
- P1 17:37CGYJoel Hanley: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 19:05CGYJoel Hanley: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glass won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Backlund – Coleman – Farabee10:37
xG 0.41–0.40 (51%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Strome – Olofsson – Sharangovich12:20
xG 0.33–0.34 (50%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Beecher – Zary – Klapka9:32
xG 0.24–0.25 (48%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
- Frost – Coronato – Gridin9:27
xG 0.38–0.51 (43%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKuznetsov – Brzustewicz13:45
xG 0.47–0.41 (53%)attempts 11–15goals 1–1
- Hanley – Pachal13:55
xG 0.43–0.48 (47%)attempts 9–14goals 2–1
- Maatta – Bahl19:37
xG 0.35–0.77 (31%)attempts 13–19goals 1–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestMeier – Hischier – Mercer10:55
xG 0.35–0.11 (77%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Brown – Bratt – Hughes9:04
xG 0.33–0.17 (66%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
- Bjugstad – Cotter – Tsyplakov9:35
xG 0.45–0.33 (58%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Glass – Gritsyuk – Hameenaho10:30
xG 0.36–0.60 (37%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Siegenthaler11:40
xG 0.42–0.15 (73%)attempts 11–4goals 1–1
- Dillon – Nemec14:29
xG 0.56–0.36 (61%)attempts 12–11goals 1–2
- Hamilton – Hughes3:40
xG 0.12–0.06 (66%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).