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Ice Lab

Thu, Mar 12, 2026·American Airlines Center, Dallas

Edmonton Oilers 2, Dallas Stars 7

Away

Edmonton Oilers

2

Final

Home

Dallas Stars

7

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 53% of the time.

DAL winsEDM wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
EDM04211017232
DAL31021126727

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:23DALJamie BennAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Sam Steel · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
  2. P1 13:09DALSam SteelAssists: Matt Duchene, Mavrik Bourque · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–2
  3. P1 15:11DALJason RobertsonGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.09 xG0–3
  4. P2 5:43DALWyatt JohnstonPPAssists: Jason Robertson, Miro Heiskanen · Snap, 0.27 xG0–4
  5. P2 6:15DALJason RobertsonAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Miro Heiskanen · Snap, 0.07 xG0–5
  6. P2 7:53EDMEvan BouchardAssists: Kasperi Kapanen, Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.10 xG1–5
  7. P2 11:59EDMJason DickinsonAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Jack Roslovic · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–5
  8. P3 1:32DALJamie BennPPAssists: Jason Robertson, Wyatt Johnston · Snap, 0.12 xG2–6
  9. P3 18:57DALMatt DucheneAssists: Colin Blackwell, Esa Lindell · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–7
Penalties (23)
  1. P2 5:32EDMJason Dickinson: Interference2 min · PPG
  2. P2 14:07DALThomas Harley: Interference2 min
  3. P2 16:13EDMConnor McDavid: Roughing2 min
  4. P2 18:34DALOskar Bäck: Interference2 min
  5. P2 0:00EDMLeon Draisaitl: Slashing2 min · PPG
  6. P2 0:00EDMConnor McDavid: Roughing2 min
  7. P2 0:00DALJustin Hryckowian: Roughing2 min
  8. P3 8:16DALJustin Hryckowian: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 8:16EDMJosh Samanski: Tripping2 min
  10. P3 8:16DALColin Blackwell: Roughing2 min
  11. P3 8:16EDMTrent Frederic: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 11:57EDMDarnell Nurse: Cross checking2 min
  13. P3 13:43DALEsa Lindell: Interference2 min
  14. P3 17:39DALWyatt Johnston: Roughing2 min
  15. P3 17:39DALWyatt Johnston: Roughing2 min
  16. P3 17:39DALMavrik Bourque: Roughing2 min
  17. P3 17:39DALMavrik Bourque: Roughing2 min
  18. P3 17:39EDMDarnell Nurse: Roughing2 min
  19. P3 17:39EDMDarnell Nurse: Roughing2 min
  20. P3 17:39EDMJason Dickinson: Roughing2 min
  21. P3 17:39EDMJason Dickinson: Roughing2 min
  22. P3 18:22DALLian Bichsel: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  23. P3 18:22EDMTrent Frederic: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

EDM00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DAL
47% to win53% to win
← EDM attackDAL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Hryckowian
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

EDMDAL
32Shots on goal27
3.1Expected goals3.0
51Shot attempts44
27Faceoffs won26
3Power plays4
24Penalty minutes22
24Hits14
7Blocked shots7
25Giveaways14
3Takeaways7

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Edmonton Oilers

Forward lines

  1. bestHenrique – Frederic – Samanski7:31

    xG 0.30–0.07 (80%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0

  2. Draisaitl – Kapanen – Podkolzin5:51

    xG 0.32–0.16 (66%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0

  3. Dickinson – Roslovic – Savoie4:22

    xG 0.21–0.13 (62%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0

  4. Draisaitl – Roslovic – Podkolzin4:34

    xG 0.02–0.02 (52%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestMurphy – Stastney2:13

    xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0

  2. Murphy – Nurse13:27

    xG 0.21–0.27 (43%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0

  3. Walman – Stastney11:41

    xG 0.28–0.42 (40%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1

Dallas Stars

Forward lines

  1. bestRobertson – Bourque – Johnston10:54

    xG 0.58–0.28 (67%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0

  2. Blackwell – Bäck – Hyry3:53

    xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0

  3. Erne – Bunting – Hyry2:57

    xG 0.09–0.13 (42%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0

  4. Erne – Bunting – Hryckowian6:41

    xG 0.10–0.17 (37%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestLindell – Heiskanen14:01

    xG 0.66–0.18 (79%)attempts 10–6goals 3–0

  2. Myers – Bichsel12:05

    xG 0.72–0.26 (73%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0

  3. Lundkvist – Harley12:22

    xG 0.19–0.19 (50%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DAL 3.0 xGEDM 3.1 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DALEDM

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.

Excitement 60/100 · #581 of 1312 this seasonSwing 0.56 · 5 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 53% (winner's lowest chance)
EDM 100%5050%50DAL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +13 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 53% of the time.

DAL winsEDM wins

Simulated goal difference (DAL − EDM), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).