Thu, Mar 12, 2026·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Colorado Avalanche 5, Seattle Kraken 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 315 | 14 | 17 | 526 |
| SEA | 08 | 114 | 07 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:45COLMartin NecasAssists: Devon Toews, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 12:54COLNathan MacKinnonGWGAssists: Martin Necas, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P1 18:48COLNicolas RoyPPAssists: Brock Nelson, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–0
- P2 13:36SEARyker EvansSHAssists: Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–1
- P2 17:11COLNazem KadriAssists: Sam Malinski, Nathan MacKinnon · Tip-in, 0.06 xG4–1
- P3 12:41COLJoel KivirantaAssists: Josh Manson, Parker Kelly · Deflected, 0.14 xG5–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 18:11SEAJordan Eberle: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 3:37COLDevon Toews: Holding2 min
- P2 5:38COLBrent Burns: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:07SEAAdam Larsson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stephenson won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestNelson – Nichushkin – Kiviranta5:48
xG 0.52–0.19 (73%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Kelly – Drury – Kiviranta3:04
xG 0.15–0.03 (85%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Nelson – Nichushkin – Roy3:55
xG 0.19–0.12 (60%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Roy – Kelly – Drury4:36
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar10:49
xG 1.11–0.30 (79%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
- Burns – Manson9:01
xG 0.34–0.09 (78%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Blankenburg – Malinski2:04
xG 0.10–0.05 (69%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestKakko – Wright – Catton11:53
xG 0.22–0.08 (72%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Stephenson – Gaudreau – Tolvanen10:26
xG 0.45–0.40 (53%)attempts 17–8goals 0–1
- Winterton – Melanson – Meyers8:21
xG 0.16–0.22 (43%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Eberle – McCann – Beniers12:34
xG 0.39–1.43 (21%)attempts 13–23goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Evans13:10
xG 0.38–0.29 (57%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Larsson – Dunn16:16
xG 0.74–0.85 (47%)attempts 25–14goals 0–1
- Montour – Lindgren15:21
xG 0.24–0.81 (22%)attempts 12–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).