Fri, Mar 13, 2026·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Edmonton Oilers 2, St. Louis Blues 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 07 | 111 | 116 | 04 | 238 |
| STL | 06 | 05 | 211 | 13 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 15:41EDMKasperi KapanenAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Vasily Podkolzin · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P3 9:56EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Matt Savoie, Connor Ingram · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P3 12:22STLPius SuterAssists: Jonatan Berggren · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 16:14STLCam FowlerAssists: Oskar Sundqvist · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- OT 4:51STLRobert ThomasGWGAssists: Cam Fowler, Jordan Kyrou · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P2 4:46STLJustin Holl: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 17:34STLLogan Mailloux: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:18STLLogan Mailloux: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:08EDMZach Hyman: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Holloway won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – McDavid – Savoie12:43
xG 0.97–0.53 (65%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Henrique – Frederic – Jones7:30
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – Kapanen – Podkolzin10:51
xG 0.60–0.55 (52%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Dickinson – Roslovic – Samanski9:01
xG 0.10–0.42 (19%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard15:01
xG 1.03–0.25 (80%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Murphy – Nurse15:58
xG 0.56–0.65 (46%)attempts 19–16goals 0–1
- Walman – Stastney13:57
xG 0.28–0.40 (41%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Kyrou – Neighbours10:19
xG 0.50–0.17 (75%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Toropchenko – Finley8:41
xG 0.11–0.18 (39%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Kyrou – Thomas – Holloway2:23
xG 0.12–0.33 (26%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Thomas – Holloway – Snuggerud12:02
xG 0.43–0.69 (39%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Parayko5:31
xG 0.46–0.18 (72%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Parayko – Lindstein11:01
xG 0.38–0.17 (68%)attempts 6–12goals 1–1
- Holl – Fowler10:30
xG 0.24–0.54 (31%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).