Sat, Mar 14, 2026·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Anaheim Ducks 0, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 05 | 08 | 011 | 024 |
| OTT | 010 | 213 | 05 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:54OTTMichael AmadioGWGAssists: Shane Pinto, Nick Cousins · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 9:21OTTThomas ChabotSHAssists: Shane Pinto · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:06ANATim Washe: Holding2 min
- P1 16:01OTTArtem Zub: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:48ANAMikael Granlund: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:22OTTTyler Kleven: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:21ANAJansen Harkins: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 18:28OTTNick Cousins: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:28ANAFrank Vatrano: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:40OTTLars Eller: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:32ANACutter Gauthier: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Greig won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGranlund – Harkins – Sennecke2:17
xG 0.36–0.03 (92%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Vatrano – Harkins – Washe3:14
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Granlund – McTavish – Sennecke5:04
xG 0.18–0.31 (38%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Kreider – Gauthier – Carlsson8:11
xG 0.50–0.66 (43%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Moore – Zellweger9:36
xG 0.80–0.78 (51%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Helleson – Zellweger3:24
xG 0.08–0.07 (53%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Moore – Mintyukov2:42
xG 0.01–0.03 (29%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Batherson – Stützle9:55
xG 0.55–0.22 (71%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Eller – Foegele – Zetterlund6:11
xG 0.48–0.20 (71%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Tkachuk – Cozens – Greig9:35
xG 0.51–0.43 (55%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Cousins – Amadio – Pinto8:22
xG 0.38–0.70 (35%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpence – Kleven13:49
xG 0.98–0.54 (65%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Matinpalo9:24
xG 0.50–0.23 (68%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Chabot – Spence2:07
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).