Sat, Mar 14, 2026·Capital One Arena, Washington
Boston Bruins 3, Washington Capitals 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 07 | 111 | 114 | 02 | 1 | 334 |
| WSH | 09 | 110 | 19 | 00 | 0 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:15WSHMatt RoyAssists: Rasmus Sandin, Hendrix Lapierre · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 11:57BOSCharlie McAvoyAssists: David Pastrnak · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 3:12WSHRasmus SandinUnassisted · Slap, 0.01 xG1–2
- P3 10:09BOSCharlie McAvoyAssists: Pavel Zacha, Viktor Arvidsson · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. WSH Pierre-Luc Dubois stopped
- 2. BOS Michael Eyssimont stopped
- 3. WSH Ryan Leonard stopped
- 4. BOS David Pastrnak stopped
- 5. WSH Dylan Strome stopped
- 6. BOS Viktor Arvidsson stopped
- 7. WSH Anthony Beauvillier stopped
- 8. BOS Casey Mittelstadt stopped
- 9. WSH Connor McMichael stopped
- 10. BOS Charlie McAvoy stopped
- 11. WSH Alex Ovechkin stopped
- 12. BOS Pavel Zacha stopped
- 13. WSH Jakob Chychrun stopped
- 14. BOS Morgan Geekie stopped
- 15. WSH Ethen Frank stopped
- 16. BOS Mason Lohrei stopped
- 17. WSH Aliaksei Protas stopped
- 18. BOS Fraser Minten scored
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:25WSHPierre-Luc Dubois: Roughing2 min
- P1 4:25BOSMorgan Geekie: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:40BOSCharlie McAvoy: Holding2 min
- P2 2:20WSHAnthony Beauvillier: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:40WSHHendrix Lapierre: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:40BOSMark Kastelic: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:59WSHTom Wilson: Interference2 min
- P3 5:20WSHAnthony Beauvillier: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:06BOSNikita Zadorov: Boarding2 min
- P3 16:40BOSHampus Lindholm: Holding2 min
- P3 18:45WSHConnor McMichael: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against McMichael
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestLindholm – Jeannot – Khusnutdinov7:11
xG 0.71–0.15 (82%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Pastrnak – Geekie – Minten10:28
xG 0.18–0.05 (79%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Arvidsson – Zacha – Mittelstadt9:42
xG 0.23–0.29 (44%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Kuraly – Eyssimont – Kastelic5:42
xG 0.00–0.68 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Lindholm – Lohrei11:18
xG 0.28–0.25 (53%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- McAvoy – Aspirot10:50
xG 0.18–0.30 (38%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Lindholm – McAvoy2:16
xG 0.19–0.48 (29%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Beauvillier – Sourdif5:13
xG 0.38–0.11 (78%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Strome – Protas – Leonard7:31
xG 0.34–0.29 (54%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Duhaime – McMichael – Frank5:27
xG 0.59–0.63 (48%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Wilson – Dubois – Lapierre10:32
xG 0.14–0.46 (23%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestRoy – Sandin12:13
xG 0.79–0.25 (76%)attempts 12–5goals 2–0
- van Riemsdyk – Fehérváry7:49
xG 0.17–0.18 (48%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Sandin2:50
xG 0.10–0.22 (32%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).