Sat, Mar 14, 2026·Grand Casino Arena, St. Paul
New York Rangers 4, Minnesota Wild 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 29 | 28 | 01 | 418 |
| MIN | 06 | 121 | 121 | 248 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:41NYRNoah LabaPPAssists: Gabe Perreault, Vladislav Gavrikov · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 15:00NYRVladislav GavrikovAssists: Tye Kartye, Adam Fox · Backhand, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 0:35MINMatt BoldyPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, Filip Gustavsson · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 8:41NYRJaroslav ChmelarGWGAssists: Taylor Raddysh, Urho Vaakanainen · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–1
- P2 9:03NYRVincent TrocheckAssists: Vladislav Gavrikov, Adam Fox · Deflected, 0.10 xG4–1
- P3 7:19MINDanila YurovAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Yakov Trenin · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 0:54MINBrock Faber: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 9:45NYRWill Borgen: Tripping2 min
- P1 0:00NYRTye Kartye: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:05NYRVladislav Gavrikov: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 9:38NYRVincent Trocheck: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:13MINMatt Boldy: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:19NYRAdam Fox: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:21MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 14:21NYRWill Borgen: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:21MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:29NYRVladislav Gavrikov: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:54MINMats Zuccarello: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:54NYRJ.T. Miller: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRaddysh – Edstrom – Chmelar5:33
xG 0.33–0.19 (63%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Sheary – Kartye – Laba7:52
xG 0.12–0.09 (56%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Trocheck – Miller – Cuylle8:58
xG 0.31–0.47 (40%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
- Zibanejad – Lafrenière – Perreault9:38
xG 0.01–0.52 (1%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorgen – Vaakanainen9:38
xG 0.37–0.05 (89%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Gavrikov – Fox12:13
xG 0.44–0.54 (45%)attempts 9–15goals 2–0
- Robertson – Schneider10:26
xG 0.23–0.44 (34%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov9:05
xG 1.00–0.14 (88%)attempts 18–4goals 0–1
- Johansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy8:22
xG 0.47–0.33 (59%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Foligno – McCarron – Sturm2:20
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Foligno – Tarasenko – Yurov4:27
xG 0.08–0.17 (32%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Brodin11:27
xG 0.94–0.26 (78%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Hughes – Faber13:17
xG 1.04–0.46 (69%)attempts 14–9goals 0–2
- Bogosian – Middleton10:18
xG 0.18–0.42 (30%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).