Sun, Mar 15, 2026·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
St. Louis Blues 2, Winnipeg Jets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 09 | 06 | 216 | 231 |
| WPG | 26 | 04 | 16 | 316 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:31WPGHaydn FleuryAssists: Brad Lambert, Morgan Barron · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 7:51WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Josh Morrissey · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–2
- P3 5:17STLDalibor DvorskyAssists: Jonatan Berggren, Pius Suter · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 11:53WPGKyle ConnorGWGAssists: Morgan Barron, Haydn Fleury · Snap, 0.21 xG1–3
- P3 19:09STLDylan HollowayAssists: Logan Mailloux, Jimmy Snuggerud · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 3:12STLJustin Holl: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:20STLOskar Sundqvist: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:31WPGElias Salomonsson: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 18:17STLPius Suter: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Holloway
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestThomas – Holloway – Snuggerud13:57
xG 0.99–0.06 (94%)attempts 23–5goals 0–0
- Suter – Berggren – Dvorsky8:28
xG 0.57–0.06 (90%)attempts 15–3goals 1–0
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Neighbours8:16
xG 0.59–0.26 (70%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Sundqvist – Toropchenko – Finley8:01
xG 0.00–0.44 (0%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBroberg – Mailloux15:55
xG 0.68–0.24 (74%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Parayko – Lindstein12:49
xG 0.94–0.57 (62%)attempts 20–7goals 0–1
- Fowler – Parayko4:18
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Vilardi – Perfetti10:08
xG 0.69–0.25 (73%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Barron – Koepke – Lambert4:26
xG 0.09–0.29 (25%)attempts 1–7goals 1–0
- Toews – Nyquist – Rosen5:12
xG 0.00–0.27 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Iafallo11:09
xG 0.17–0.48 (26%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamberg – Salomonsson14:00
xG 0.72–0.44 (62%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Fleury – Bryson9:10
xG 0.28–0.19 (60%)attempts 7–5goals 2–1
- DeMelo – Samberg2:39
xG 0.05–0.09 (34%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).