Sun, Mar 15, 2026·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
San Jose Sharks 4, Ottawa Senators 7
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 213 | 16 | 14 | 423 |
| OTT | 16 | 312 | 37 | 725 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:05SJSMario FerraroAssists: Shakir Mukhamadullin · Slap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 7:33OTTDrake BathersonPPUnassisted · Other, 1.00 xG1–1
- P1 14:43SJSTyler ToffoliAssists: Mario Ferraro, Shakir Mukhamadullin · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 4:31OTTWarren FoegeleAssists: Michael Amadio · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 10:46SJSCollin GrafAssists: Macklin Celebrini, Sam Dickinson · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–2
- P2 13:40OTTFabian ZetterlundPPAssists: Jordan Spence · Slap, 0.05 xG3–3
- P2 14:45OTTTyler KlevenAssists: Fabian Zetterlund, Warren Foegele · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 3:28SJSMichael MisaAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Vincent Desharnais · Snap, 0.05 xG4–4
- P3 13:08OTTDrake BathersonGWGAssists: Artem Zub, Claude Giroux · Deflected, 0.14 xG4–5
- P3 14:50OTTDylan CozensAssists: Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–6
- P3 17:43OTTBrady TkachukENAssists: Michael Amadio, Artem Zub · Wrist, 0.83 xG4–7
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:42OTTTim Stützle: High sticking2 min
- P1 6:17SJSJohn Klingberg: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 19:19SJSVincent Desharnais: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:03SJSDmitry Orlov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:58OTTArtem Zub: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Greig won the faceoff against Celebrini
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Celebrini – Graf12:17
xG 0.69–0.63 (52%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
- Toffoli – Eklund – Misa8:51
xG 0.64–0.66 (49%)attempts 12–11goals 2–2
- Goodrow – Gaudette – Ostapchuk8:25
xG 0.32–0.38 (46%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Sherwood – Kurashev – Regenda9:59
xG 0.31–0.55 (36%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDesharnais – Dickinson16:19
xG 1.24–0.47 (73%)attempts 22–18goals 2–0
- Ferraro – Mukhamadullin13:41
xG 0.27–0.70 (28%)attempts 10–14goals 2–2
- Orlov – Klingberg13:02
xG 0.37–1.15 (24%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTkachuk – Cozens – Greig9:34
xG 0.72–0.20 (78%)attempts 15–8goals 1–2
- Cousins – Amadio – Pinto13:13
xG 0.52–0.53 (49%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Giroux – Batherson – Stützle8:54
xG 0.33–0.44 (43%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
- Eller – Foegele – Zetterlund10:12
xG 0.49–0.68 (42%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Spence2:17
xG 0.21–0.04 (84%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Spence – Kleven14:45
xG 0.59–0.42 (58%)attempts 16–12goals 2–1
- Chabot – Zub16:28
xG 0.86–0.74 (54%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).