Sun, Mar 15, 2026·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Florida Panthers 2, Seattle Kraken 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 110 | 07 | 18 | 225 |
| SEA | 313 | 15 | 27 | 625 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:28SEABen MeyersAssists: Ryan Winterton, Frederick Gaudreau · Deflected, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 11:52SEABerkly CattonAssists: Kaapo Kakko, Jamie Oleksiak · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–2
- P1 12:07FLAVinnie HinostrozaAssists: Luke Kunin, Jesper Boqvist · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P1 18:24SEARyan WintertonGWGAssists: Ben Meyers, Brandon Montour · Bat, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 3:20SEAKaapo KakkoAssists: Vince Dunn, Berkly Catton · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–4
- P3 10:07SEABobby McMannPPAssists: Kaapo Kakko, Eeli Tolvanen · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–5
- P3 14:37SEAJamie OleksiakAssists: Bobby McMann, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–6
- P3 19:58FLAEetu LuostarinenAssists: Gustav Forsling, Mackie Samoskevich · Backhand, 0.04 xG2–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 13:30SEARyan Lindgren: Holding2 min
- P2 7:23SEAChandler Stephenson: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:27SEAEeli Tolvanen: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:28FLALuke Kunin: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:18FLAEvan Rodrigues: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:01FLAAnton Lundell: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 10:38FLAAaron Ekblad: Holding2 min
- P3 11:44SEABrandon Montour: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lundell won the faceoff against Beniers
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Rodrigues – Samoskevich6:39
xG 0.56–0.13 (82%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Luostarinen – Lundell – Samoskevich5:33
xG 0.37–0.13 (74%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Verhaeghe – Rodrigues – Tkachuk5:06
xG 0.24–0.00 (99%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Tkachuk – Luostarinen – Lundell6:07
xG 0.17–0.19 (48%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling14:44
xG 0.81–0.44 (65%)attempts 28–8goals 2–1
- Kulikov – Sebrango11:58
xG 0.28–0.37 (43%)attempts 7–7goals 0–2
- Kulikov – Mikkola2:32
xG 0.01–0.10 (9%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Winterton – Meyers11:07
xG 0.64–0.56 (53%)attempts 8–16goals 2–1
- Kakko – Wright – Catton6:17
xG 0.28–0.28 (50%)attempts 5–7goals 1–1
- Eberle – McMann – Beniers10:22
xG 0.47–0.51 (48%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Stephenson – McCann – Tolvanen8:12
xG 0.20–0.36 (36%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Evans12:31
xG 1.01–0.22 (82%)attempts 11–13goals 2–0
- Larsson – Dunn11:41
xG 0.45–0.38 (55%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
- Montour – Dunn2:34
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).