Mon, Mar 16, 2026·Madison Square Garden, New York
Los Angeles Kings 4, New York Rangers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 18 | 216 | 12 | 426 |
| NYR | 06 | 03 | 113 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:29LAKDrew DoughtyAssists: Mikey Anderson, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 4:31LAKMikey AndersonGWGAssists: Alex Laferriere, Quinton Byfield · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 4:59LAKAlex LaferrierePPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Quinton Byfield · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–0
- P3 2:29NYRVincent TrocheckPPAssists: Adam Fox, Mika Zibanejad · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 18:12LAKTrevor MooreENAssists: Alex Laferriere · Wrist, 0.68 xG4–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 8:42LAKQuinton Byfield: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:48NYRVincent Trocheck: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:13NYRMatthew Robertson: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:15LAKAlex Laferriere: Boarding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestMalott – Helenius – Ward9:22
xG 0.70–0.25 (74%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Laughton – Turcotte – Wright5:21
xG 0.28–0.02 (93%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Moore – Byfield – Laferriere9:48
xG 0.60–0.44 (58%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Kopitar – Joseph – Panarin7:06
xG 0.24–0.10 (71%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Anderson18:11
xG 1.05–0.42 (71%)attempts 21–15goals 1–0
- Dumoulin – Ceci15:14
xG 0.30–0.39 (44%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Clarke17:08
xG 0.42–0.72 (37%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRaddysh – Edstrom – Chmelar6:49
xG 0.17–0.05 (78%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Miller – Cuylle13:29
xG 0.35–0.35 (50%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Lafrenière – Perreault14:05
xG 0.48–0.63 (43%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
- Sheary – Kartye – Laba9:38
xG 0.09–0.76 (11%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Fox17:04
xG 0.70–0.64 (52%)attempts 16–15goals 0–1
- Borgen – Vaakanainen12:52
xG 0.25–0.21 (55%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Robertson – Schneider14:56
xG 0.37–0.48 (43%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).