Tue, Mar 17, 2026·Centre Bell, Montreal
Boston Bruins 2, Montréal Canadiens 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 113 | 18 | 06 | 01 | 228 |
| MTL | 113 | 17 | 07 | 14 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:22BOSPavel ZachaPPAssists: David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 10:31MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Juraj Slafkovský, Cole Caufield · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 5:41BOSPavel ZachaAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Casey Mittelstadt · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 13:15MTLJosh AndersonAssists: Lane Hutson, Brendan Gallagher · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–2
- OT 4:38MTLCole CaufieldGWGAssists: Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 0:25MTLAlexandre Carrier: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P1 18:47BOSMason Lohrei: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:42MTLMike Matheson: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:21MTLPhillip Danault: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Kuraly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestLindholm – Eyssimont – Geekie9:37
xG 1.03–0.38 (73%)attempts 18–11goals 0–1
- Arvidsson – Zacha – Mittelstadt10:15
xG 0.31–0.71 (30%)attempts 5–15goals 1–1
- Kuraly – Jeannot – Kastelic9:37
xG 0.06–0.60 (9%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Pastrnak – Khusnutdinov – Minten10:44
xG 0.23–1.27 (16%)attempts 7–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcAvoy – Aspirot13:29
xG 1.12–0.93 (55%)attempts 14–22goals 0–0
- Lindholm – McAvoy2:58
xG 0.06–0.25 (20%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Zadorov – Peeke14:10
xG 0.29–0.87 (25%)attempts 10–20goals 1–2
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský14:28
xG 1.86–0.49 (79%)attempts 29–11goals 1–0
- Evans – Texier – Bolduc10:53
xG 1.13–0.20 (85%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Newhook – Kapanen – Demidov8:44
xG 0.30–0.19 (62%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Gallagher – Danault – Anderson8:58
xG 0.29–0.63 (31%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarrier – Guhle13:24
xG 1.36–0.02 (99%)attempts 19–4goals 0–0
- Dobson – Hutson3:20
xG 0.68–0.02 (97%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Struble – Hutson10:10
xG 0.68–0.20 (77%)attempts 14–4goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).