Tue, Mar 17, 2026·United Center, Chicago
Minnesota Wild 4, Chicago Blackhawks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 316 | 010 | 06 | 15 | 437 |
| CHI | 17 | 111 | 17 | 01 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:17MINRyan HartmanAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Brock Faber · Snap, 0.23 xG1–0
- P1 7:58MINMarcus JohanssonAssists: Michael McCarron, Jonas Brodin · Snap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P1 10:47CHILouis CrevierAssists: Frank Nazar, Wyatt Kaiser · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P1 18:30MINVladimir TarasenkoPPAssists: Marcus Johansson, Brock Faber · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P2 14:35CHIRyan GreeneAssists: Connor Bedard, Louis Crevier · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–2
- P3 18:20CHIFrank NazarAssists: Connor Bedard, Artyom Levshunov · Snap, 0.26 xG3–3
- OT 3:09MINMats ZuccarelloGWGAssists: Marcus Johansson, Brock Faber · Snap, 0.15 xG4–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 13:10MINDanila Yurov: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:41CHIAndrew Mangiapane: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:23MINNick Foligno: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bedard won the faceoff against Foligno
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKaprizov – Boldy – Yurov10:55
xG 0.61–0.10 (86%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Foligno – Johansson – McCarron9:36
xG 0.52–0.24 (68%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Tarasenko – Hartman10:11
xG 0.26–0.19 (58%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Fabbri – Trenin – Sturm6:29
xG 0.50–0.43 (54%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Middleton11:59
xG 0.55–0.11 (83%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Hughes – Faber17:58
xG 1.39–0.97 (59%)attempts 25–19goals 1–1
- Bogosian – Hughes2:20
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Bertuzzi – Nazar12:04
xG 0.48–0.27 (64%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Burakovsky – Greene – Bedard13:56
xG 0.53–0.44 (55%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- Donato – Mangiapane – Mikheyev8:19
xG 0.27–0.42 (39%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Lafferty – Slaggert – Lardis5:31
xG 0.06–0.60 (9%)attempts 2–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCrevier – Kaiser5:53
xG 0.30–0.02 (95%)attempts 7–1goals 2–0
- Kaiser – Levshunov2:36
xG 0.20–0.02 (92%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Kaiser – Rinzel12:28
xG 0.20–0.31 (40%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).