Tue, Mar 17, 2026·Rogers Place, Edmonton
San Jose Sharks 3, Edmonton Oilers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 18 | 215 | 07 | 330 |
| EDM | 310 | 012 | 215 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:24SJSDmitry OrlovAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Kiefer Sherwood · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 10:00EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 11:15EDMConnor MurphyAssists: Jason Dickinson, Jack Roslovic · Wrist, 0.00 xG1–2
- P1 14:18EDMVasily PodkolzinAssists: Adam Henrique · Snap, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 8:17SJSPavol RegendaAssists: Mario Ferraro, Adam Gaudette · Tip-in, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 14:36SJSKiefer SherwoodAssists: Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 4:49EDMMax JonesGWGAssists: Adam Henrique, Trent Frederic · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–4
- P3 8:12EDMZach HymanAssists: Matt Savoie, Mattias Ekholm · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:51SJSJohn Klingberg: Holding2 min
- P1 3:31EDMZach Hyman: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:10SJSVincent Desharnais: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 0:31SJSMacklin Celebrini: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:11SJSKiefer Sherwood: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Celebrini
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestGaudette – Sherwood – Regenda5:02
xG 0.80–0.11 (88%)attempts 8–4goals 2–0
- Smith – Celebrini – Graf5:57
xG 0.45–0.13 (77%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Wennberg – Sherwood – Regenda4:49
xG 0.34–0.14 (70%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Goodrow – Gaudette – Ostapchuk2:58
xG 0.12–0.04 (75%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Dickinson10:57
xG 0.85–0.12 (87%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Orlov – Klingberg14:49
xG 1.12–1.04 (52%)attempts 15–17goals 2–2
- Leddy – Ferraro4:39
xG 0.08–0.02 (76%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Frederic – Jones4:22
xG 0.20–0.14 (59%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Hyman – McDavid – Savoie11:48
xG 0.69–0.64 (52%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Kapanen – Podkolzin – Samanski6:09
xG 0.12–0.07 (62%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Dickinson – Kapanen – Samanski2:23
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard15:42
xG 0.98–0.79 (55%)attempts 12–17goals 2–0
- Murphy – Nurse15:51
xG 0.43–0.81 (35%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
- Walman – Stastney14:51
xG 0.59–1.36 (30%)attempts 16–17goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).