Wed, Mar 18, 2026·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
St. Louis Blues 1, Calgary Flames 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 08 | 16 | 09 | 03 | 0 | 126 |
| CGY | 111 | 06 | 07 | 07 | 2 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:34CGYConnor ZaryAssists: Ryan Strome · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 3:47STLDylan HollowayAssists: Jimmy Snuggerud, Robert Thomas · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. CGY Morgan Frost stopped
- 2. STL Jake Neighbours stopped
- 3. CGY Joel Farabee scored
- 4. STL Jimmy Snuggerud stopped
- 5. CGY Matvei Gridin scored
Penalties (12)
- P1 10:10STLPius Suter: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:29STLJake Neighbours: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:29CGYMartin Pospisil: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:29STLJake Neighbours: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:56STLTyler Tucker: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:56STLTyler Tucker: Kneeing2 min
- P2 9:56CGYKevin Bahl: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:56CGYJoel Farabee: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:40CGYBlake Coleman: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:39STLRobert Thomas: Abuse of officials2 min
- P3 17:05CGYBlake Coleman: Interference2 min
- OT 2:23STLPavel Buchnevich: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suter won the faceoff against Pospisil
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestDrouin – Dvorsky – Stenberg11:16
xG 0.53–0.08 (87%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Thomas – Holloway – Snuggerud13:02
xG 0.51–0.22 (69%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Neighbours10:12
xG 0.28–0.26 (52%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Toropchenko – Suter – Finley6:41
xG 0.30–0.41 (43%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestParayko – Lindstein11:45
xG 0.89–0.04 (95%)attempts 16–4goals 1–0
- Parayko – Broberg2:36
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Fowler – Parayko4:32
xG 0.28–0.08 (78%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Olofsson – Pospisil – Klapka8:15
xG 0.29–0.27 (51%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Strome – Sharangovich – Zary12:43
xG 0.26–0.45 (37%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Farabee12:41
xG 0.26–0.53 (33%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Frost – Coronato – Gridin7:17
xG 0.02–0.30 (5%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Maatta – Brzustewicz15:40
xG 0.45–0.40 (53%)attempts 7–15goals 1–0
- Hanley – Whitecloud3:01
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Hanley – Parekh10:00
xG 0.21–0.60 (26%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).