Thu, Mar 19, 2026·TD Garden, Boston
Winnipeg Jets 1, Boston Bruins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 09 | 07 | 18 | 124 |
| BOS | 113 | 28 | 36 | 627 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:52BOSDavid PastrnakUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 6:23BOSLukas ReichelGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 18:16BOSViktor ArvidssonAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Pavel Zacha · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–3
- P3 3:15BOSPavel ZachaAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Viktor Arvidsson · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–4
- P3 5:38WPGJonathan ToewsPPAssists: Elias Salomonsson, Brad Lambert · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–4
- P3 15:52BOSFraser MintenAssists: David Pastrnak, Andrew Peeke · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–5
- P3 18:18BOSJonathan AspirotAssists: Morgan Geekie, Lukas Reichel · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–6
Penalties (4)
- P1 4:19WPGGustav Nyquist: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:04BOSDavid Pastrnak: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 5:02BOSHampus Lindholm: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:31BOSViktor Arvidsson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Zacha
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Vilardi – Perfetti6:32
xG 0.70–0.04 (94%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi8:00
xG 0.72–0.29 (71%)attempts 10–4goals 0–2
- Lowry – Perfetti – Lambert3:24
xG 0.29–0.11 (73%)attempts 6–1goals 0–1
- Scheifele – Connor – Iafallo6:49
xG 0.19–0.41 (32%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMorrissey – Salomonsson5:58
xG 0.49–0.22 (69%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Morrissey – Samberg2:06
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey11:37
xG 0.81–0.75 (52%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKuraly – Jeannot – Kastelic10:00
xG 0.68–0.08 (90%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Arvidsson – Zacha – Mittelstadt11:28
xG 0.57–0.55 (51%)attempts 10–10goals 2–0
- Pastrnak – Khusnutdinov – Minten10:08
xG 0.67–0.87 (44%)attempts 8–12goals 2–0
- Lindholm – Geekie – Reichel11:34
xG 0.44–0.67 (40%)attempts 11–12goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestZadorov – Peeke15:11
xG 1.00–0.70 (59%)attempts 20–14goals 2–0
- McAvoy – Aspirot14:19
xG 0.98–0.71 (58%)attempts 14–11goals 4–0
- Lindholm – Lohrei16:19
xG 0.68–0.93 (42%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).