Thu, Mar 19, 2026·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
New York Rangers 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 18 | 112 | 15 | 325 |
| CBJ | 214 | 213 | 210 | 637 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:41NYRVincent TrocheckSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 14:33CBJIsac LundeströmAssists: Boone Jenner · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 19:01CBJConor GarlandAssists: Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 4:44NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Alexis Lafrenière, Gabe Perreault · Snap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 7:04CBJBoone JennerAssists: Danton Heinen, Ivan Provorov · Snap, 0.16 xG2–3
- P2 15:25CBJAdam FantilliPPGWGAssists: Zach Werenski, Kirill Marchenko · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 0:50NYRAlexis LafrenièrePPAssists: Adam Fox, Mika Zibanejad · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–4
- P3 6:12CBJDamon SeversonAssists: Cole Sillinger, Zach Werenski · Snap, 0.20 xG3–5
- P3 17:06CBJAdam FantilliENAssists: Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.55 xG3–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:45NYRVladislav Gavrikov: Hooking2 min
- P1 4:53NYRTye Kartye: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:58CBJErik Gudbranson: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:31CBJKent Johnson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 14:29NYRJaroslav Chmelar: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 15:51NYRConnor Mackey: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:00CBJCharlie Coyle: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 3:03CBJCole Sillinger: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:53NYRAdam Fox: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:14CBJAdam Fantilli: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:04CBJBoone Jenner: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Raddysh – Cuylle8:08
xG 0.31–0.11 (74%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Miller – Sheary – Kartye6:56
xG 0.37–0.41 (48%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Brodzinski – Edstrom – Chmelar5:28
xG 0.49–0.65 (43%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Zibanejad – Lafrenière – Perreault12:23
xG 0.22–0.48 (32%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Fox11:23
xG 0.78–0.58 (57%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Borgen – Mackey9:10
xG 0.35–0.31 (53%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Gavrikov – Schneider3:01
xG 0.03–0.19 (15%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMarchment – Marchenko – Fantilli9:14
xG 0.73–0.36 (67%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Monahan – Garland – Johnson4:59
xG 0.27–0.01 (96%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Coyle – Olivier – Sillinger10:17
xG 0.30–0.20 (60%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Jenner – Heinen – Lundeström8:31
xG 0.56–0.75 (43%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Werenski14:14
xG 1.24–0.41 (75%)attempts 17–4goals 1–0
- Provorov – Mateychuk8:48
xG 0.39–0.19 (67%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
- Severson – Fabbro2:14
xG 0.08–0.10 (46%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).