Thu, Mar 19, 2026·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Florida Panthers 4, Edmonton Oilers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 212 | 15 | 16 | 423 |
| EDM | 08 | 09 | 04 | 021 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:12FLACole ReinhardtGWGAssists: Mike Benning · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 19:02FLAA.J. GreerAssists: Mike Benning, Evan Rodrigues · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 14:21FLAAnton LundellPPAssists: Sam Bennett, Evan Rodrigues · Snap, 0.22 xG3–0
- P3 15:23FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Bennett · Snap, 0.10 xG4–0
Penalties (4)
- P1 12:36EDMSpencer Stastney: Interference2 min
- P2 0:29FLASam Bennett: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:18FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:49EDMVasily Podkolzin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestGreer – Rodrigues – Samoskevich8:16
xG 0.51–0.10 (83%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk10:54
xG 0.65–0.55 (54%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Nosek – Kunin – Reinhardt7:39
xG 0.29–0.22 (57%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Boqvist – Luostarinen – Lundell9:35
xG 0.01–0.20 (5%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Benning13:11
xG 0.79–0.51 (61%)attempts 15–11goals 2–0
- Jones – Mikkola15:35
xG 0.41–0.50 (45%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Ekblad – Forsling14:38
xG 0.40–0.74 (35%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestMcDavid – Podkolzin – Savoie8:54
xG 0.69–0.35 (66%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Dickinson – Roslovic – Jones2:19
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – Kapanen2:10
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid2:14
xG 0.25–0.07 (77%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard17:06
xG 1.27–0.51 (71%)attempts 26–8goals 0–1
- Murphy – Nurse13:53
xG 0.47–0.42 (53%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Walman – Bouchard2:10
xG 0.06–0.00 (92%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).