Fri, Mar 20, 2026·United Center, Chicago
Colorado Avalanche 4, Chicago Blackhawks 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 220 | 015 | 214 | 449 |
| CHI | 05 | 16 | 09 | 120 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:19COLMartin NecasAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Nathan MacKinnon · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 15:22COLBrock NelsonPPGWGAssists: Cale Makar, Martin Necas · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 6:48CHIWyatt KaiserAssists: Ryan Greene, Sam Rinzel · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P3 0:36COLNazem KadriPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 8:34COLValeri NichushkinAssists: Nathan MacKinnon · Snap, 0.12 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:20CHIDominic Toninato: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 16:05COLJack Drury: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:51COLBrock Nelson: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:13CHIRyan Donato: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:00CHISam Rinzel: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 10:05COLDevon Toews: Interference2 min
- P3 10:19CHIArtyom Levshunov: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Drury won the faceoff against Donato
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Drury – Kiviranta9:37
xG 0.85–0.13 (87%)attempts 22–4goals 0–0
- Bardakov – Ivan – Brindley8:04
xG 0.54–0.06 (91%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Kadri – Nelson – Roy7:23
xG 0.45–0.09 (84%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- MacKinnon – Nichushkin – Necas10:29
xG 0.81–0.75 (52%)attempts 15–12goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Malinski11:32
xG 0.53–0.17 (76%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Burns – Manson10:55
xG 0.97–0.65 (60%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Kulak – Malinski2:30
xG 0.27–0.06 (82%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBurakovsky – Greene – Bedard8:52
xG 0.49–0.27 (65%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Burakovsky – Bertuzzi – Bedard2:25
xG 0.12–0.19 (40%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Donato – Mikheyev – Slaggert2:04
xG 0.01–0.07 (8%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Toninato – Lafferty – Slaggert4:33
xG 0.00–0.09 (3%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKaiser – Rinzel14:40
xG 0.87–0.60 (59%)attempts 16–14goals 1–1
- Grzelcyk – Levshunov2:25
xG 0.00–0.14 (2%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – Del Mastro10:58
xG 0.15–0.82 (15%)attempts 3–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).