Sat, Mar 21, 2026·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Vegas Golden Knights 1, Nashville Predators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 020 | 110 | 010 | 140 |
| NSH | 14 | 311 | 05 | 420 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:40NSHSteven StamkosAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 1:24NSHSteven StamkosPPGWGAssists: Filip Forsberg, Jonathan Marchessault · Snap, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 11:56NSHTyson JostSHAssists: Brady Skjei · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–3
- P2 13:10VGKShea TheodorePPAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Brett Howden · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
- P2 14:53NSHRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Roman Josi · Deflected, 0.20 xG1–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 15:42NSHSteven Stamkos: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:54VGKShea Theodore: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 4:31NSHErik Haula: Interference2 min
- P2 8:05VGKBen Hutton: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:05VGKNic Dowd: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:05NSHNick Perbix: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:05NSHOzzy Wiesblatt: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:05VGKBrett Howden: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:39NSHRyan O'Reilly: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:27VGKNic Dowd: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 2:45NSHMatthew Wood: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Haula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStone – Barbashev – Eichel8:58
xG 0.69–0.43 (62%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Hertl – Marner – Dorofeyev9:40
xG 0.47–0.28 (63%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Sissons – Howden – Bowman6:07
xG 0.16–0.15 (51%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Dowd – Kolesar – Smith9:29
xG 0.08–0.51 (13%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore13:40
xG 0.87–0.29 (75%)attempts 16–7goals 0–1
- Hutton – Hanifin11:45
xG 0.56–0.54 (51%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Andersson – Lauzon10:22
xG 0.20–0.35 (37%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – O'Reilly – Evangelista7:54
xG 0.66–0.42 (61%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Marchessault – Forsberg – Svechkov2:00
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Haula – Jost – L'Heureux6:50
xG 0.14–0.22 (40%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Wiesblatt – Svechkov – Schaefer5:55
xG 0.00–0.34 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHague – Perbix6:22
xG 0.58–0.20 (75%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Perbix – Ufko6:16
xG 0.10–0.29 (26%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
- Hague – Barron11:05
xG 0.32–0.56 (37%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).