Sat, Mar 21, 2026·Grand Casino Arena, St. Paul
Dallas Stars 1, Minnesota Wild 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 110 | 09 | 011 | 00 | 130 |
| MIN | 09 | 18 | 010 | 11 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:21DALJason RobertsonPPAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 10:45MINBobby BrinkAssists: Quinn Hughes, Jared Spurgeon · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–1
- OT 3:06MINVladimir TarasenkoGWGAssists: Bobby Brink, Quinn Hughes · Snap, 0.18 xG1–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:56DALJason Robertson: Boarding2 min
- P1 14:10MINMats Zuccarello: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 14:10DALNathan Bastian: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:10MINMats Zuccarello: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:14DALLian Bichsel: Holding2 min
- P2 16:59MINNico Sturm: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:27MINJonas Brodin: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:16MINBobby Brink: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnston won the faceoff against Yurov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Blackwell – Steel – Hryckowian7:31
xG 0.58–0.53 (52%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Robertson – Bourque – Johnston13:08
xG 0.49–0.50 (49%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Benn – Duchene – Bunting7:31
xG 0.01–0.20 (3%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Erne – Bastian – Bäck7:23
xG 0.05–0.48 (9%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindell – Heiskanen12:40
xG 0.70–0.54 (56%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Lindell – Harley2:29
xG 0.02–0.09 (19%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Lundkvist – Harley13:53
xG 0.47–0.58 (44%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Boldy – Yurov7:58
xG 0.45–0.17 (72%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Tarasenko – Hartman8:47
xG 0.73–0.50 (59%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Foligno – McCarron – Brink7:49
xG 0.16–0.11 (60%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Johansson – Boldy – Haight2:08
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Hughes15:32
xG 0.73–0.21 (77%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Bogosian – Middleton7:58
xG 0.36–0.21 (63%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Hughes – Faber5:09
xG 0.24–0.11 (69%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).