Sat, Mar 21, 2026·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Philadelphia Flyers 4, San Jose Sharks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 06 | 111 | 311 | 428 |
| SJS | 06 | 17 | 012 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:26PHIOwen TippettAssists: Trevor Zegras, Noah Juulsen · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 13:12SJSDmitry OrlovPPAssists: William Eklund, Macklin Celebrini · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 1:47PHIChristian DvorakPPGWGAssists: Travis Konecny, Matvei Michkov · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 18:48PHITravis SanheimENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.32 xG3–1
- P3 19:24PHINoah CatesENAssists: Christian Dvorak · Wrist, 0.64 xG4–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:48SJSRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:48PHIGarrett Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:09SJSCollin Graf: Holding2 min
- P1 10:18PHITrevor Zegras: Kneeing2 min
- P1 15:40PHIMatvei Michkov: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 5:02SJSPhilipp Kurashev: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:19PHIEmil Andrae: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 16:17SJSWilliam Eklund: Holding2 min
- P2 17:12SJSBarclay Goodrow: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 17:12PHINoah Cates: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:14SJSMario Ferraro: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:56PHITrevor Zegras: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:40SJSMacklin Celebrini: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cates won the faceoff against Misa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestTippett – Zegras – Grebenkin4:50
xG 0.51–0.30 (63%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Dvorak – Konecny – Bump8:29
xG 0.32–0.29 (52%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Grundstrom – Cates – Michkov4:42
xG 0.11–0.10 (52%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYork – Drysdale8:59
xG 0.45–0.24 (65%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Sanheim11:40
xG 0.58–0.41 (58%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Seeler – Juulsen6:25
xG 0.00–0.26 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestWennberg – Smith – Celebrini8:31
xG 0.60–0.15 (80%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Gaudette – Ostapchuk4:24
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Sherwood – Eklund – Misa10:20
xG 0.36–0.28 (56%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Kurashev – Smith – Celebrini3:57
xG 0.00–0.47 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Klingberg12:20
xG 0.63–0.07 (90%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Leddy – Dickinson8:46
xG 0.55–0.36 (61%)attempts 13–3goals 0–1
- Ferraro – Mukhamadullin10:39
xG 0.24–0.20 (54%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).