Sat, Mar 21, 2026·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
St. Louis Blues 3, Vancouver Canucks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 05 | 211 | 15 | 321 |
| VAN | 04 | 06 | 15 | 115 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:17STLPius SuterAssists: Robert Thomas, Dylan Holloway · Deflected, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 11:36STLPavel BuchnevichGWGAssists: Philip Broberg, Logan Mailloux · Snap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P3 8:32VANFilip HronekPPAssists: Elias Pettersson, Marco Rossi · Snap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 19:12STLJordan KyrouENAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Logan Mailloux · Backhand, 0.79 xG3–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:55STLJake Neighbours: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:02VANKevin Lankinen: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:59VANBrock Boeser: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:30STLJake Neighbours: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 17:44VANFilip Hronek: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rossi won the faceoff against Dvorsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestThomas – Holloway – Snuggerud14:01
xG 1.14–0.55 (67%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Neighbours7:58
xG 0.63–0.12 (84%)attempts 13–1goals 1–0
- Toropchenko – Suter – Finley5:40
xG 0.07–0.05 (60%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Drouin – Dvorsky – Stenberg8:49
xG 0.03–0.03 (49%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHoll – Fowler14:33
xG 1.07–0.13 (89%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Broberg – Mailloux15:29
xG 1.03–0.48 (68%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Parayko – Lindstein12:47
xG 0.44–0.13 (77%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBoeser – Räty – Ohgren2:46
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Kane – Pettersson – O'Connor2:24
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Blueger – Douglas – Karlsson2:24
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- DeBrusk – Hoglander – Rossi2:27
xG 0.05–0.10 (34%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Pettersson – Mancini4:50
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Hronek – Buium11:20
xG 0.21–0.24 (47%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Willander13:12
xG 0.19–0.46 (29%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).