Sat, Mar 21, 2026·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Boston Bruins 4, Detroit Red Wings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 010 | 110 | 37 | 427 |
| DET | 010 | 111 | 123 | 244 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:35DETLucas RaymondPPAssists: Andrew Copp, Patrick Kane · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 5:07BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Morgan Geekie · Slap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 4:06DETAlex DeBrincatAssists: Moritz Seider · Snap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 6:22BOSElias LindholmAssists: Morgan Geekie, Mason Lohrei · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 9:42BOSNikita ZadorovGWGAssists: Morgan Geekie, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 18:08BOSMarat KhusnutdinovENAssists: David Pastrnak, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.62 xG4–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:05DETMason Appleton: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:41BOSMark Kastelic: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:57BOSCasey Mittelstadt: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:04BOSHampus Lindholm: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:35DETDavid Perron: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 4:43DETMoritz Seider: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 7:11BOSJonathan Aspirot: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:52DETPatrick Kane: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuraly won the faceoff against Copp
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKuraly – Jeannot – Kastelic5:58
xG 0.42–0.32 (57%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Lindholm – Geekie – Reichel7:50
xG 0.33–0.32 (51%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Arvidsson – Zacha – Mittelstadt10:46
xG 0.17–0.35 (33%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Pastrnak – Khusnutdinov – Minten12:58
xG 0.26–0.64 (29%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Lohrei11:00
xG 0.82–0.12 (87%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Zadorov – McAvoy2:07
xG 0.03–0.02 (60%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- McAvoy – Aspirot14:00
xG 0.38–0.72 (35%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Raymond – Finnie12:55
xG 0.82–0.30 (73%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Copp – Appleton – Kasper7:57
xG 0.30–0.02 (93%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Kane – Compher – DeBrincat11:01
xG 0.47–0.40 (54%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Shine – Dries3:02
xG 0.01–0.41 (2%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Faulk16:14
xG 0.69–0.25 (73%)attempts 20–9goals 0–1
- Seider – Edvinsson13:23
xG 0.42–0.29 (59%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Chiarot – Johansson2:10
xG 0.04–0.02 (62%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).