Sun, Mar 22, 2026·Madison Square Garden, New York
Winnipeg Jets 3, New York Rangers 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 111 | 114 | 011 | 01 | 2 | 337 |
| NYR | 04 | 216 | 05 | 04 | 0 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:06WPGAdam LowryAssists: Gabriel Vilardi, Cole Perfetti · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–0
- P2 0:41NYRTye KartyeAssists: J.T. Miller · Snap, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 6:43WPGGabriel VilardiPPAssists: Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey · Snap, 0.21 xG2–1
- P2 14:03NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Adam Fox, J.T. Miller · Slap, 0.07 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NYR Vincent Trocheck stopped
- 2. WPG Kyle Connor scored
- 3. NYR J.T. Miller stopped
- 4. WPG Gabriel Vilardi scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:26NYRTye Kartye: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:22NYRTaylor Raddysh: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 9:40WPGHaydn Fleury: Interference2 min
- P2 12:56WPGCole Perfetti: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:54NYRMatthew Robertson: High sticking2 min
- OT 1:39WPGMark Scheifele: Interference2 min
- OT 4:48NYRAlexis Lafrenière: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Miller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Connor – Iafallo15:30
xG 0.72–0.16 (82%)attempts 20–9goals 0–0
- Lowry – Vilardi – Perfetti12:04
xG 0.98–0.66 (60%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Barron – Rosen – Lambert6:58
xG 0.12–0.14 (45%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Toews – Nyquist – Koepke7:37
xG 0.11–0.41 (21%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMorrissey – Pionk16:33
xG 1.26–0.62 (67%)attempts 22–12goals 1–0
- Samberg – Salomonsson14:32
xG 0.79–0.44 (64%)attempts 20–9goals 0–1
- DeMelo – Morrissey2:00
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Brodzinski – Edstrom – Chmelar5:17
xG 0.15–0.13 (54%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Lafrenière – Perreault13:30
xG 0.44–0.56 (44%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Miller – Sheary – Kartye10:08
xG 0.56–0.82 (41%)attempts 5–11goals 1–1
- Trocheck – Raddysh – Cuylle13:54
xG 0.29–0.57 (33%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobertson – Schneider20:06
xG 0.71–0.55 (56%)attempts 14–23goals 1–0
- Borgen – Mackey10:33
xG 0.26–0.44 (37%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Gavrikov – Fox15:52
xG 0.48–1.37 (26%)attempts 12–22goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).