Sun, Mar 22, 2026·Capital One Arena, Washington
Colorado Avalanche 3, Washington Capitals 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 06 | 08 | 27 | 13 | 324 |
| WSH | 18 | 07 | 17 | 00 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:53WSHJustin SourdifAssists: Connor McMichael, Matt Roy · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P3 1:05COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Martin Necas · Snap, 0.22 xG1–1
- P3 6:03COLNicolas RoyAssists: Zakhar Bardakov · Snap, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 14:17WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Dylan Strome, Cole Hutson · Slap, 0.08 xG2–2
- OT 1:22COLBrock NelsonGWGAssists: Martin Necas, Devon Toews · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:14WSHCole Hutson: Holding2 min
- P1 5:23COLNicolas Roy: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:50COLParker Kelly: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:29WSHAlex Ovechkin: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:17COLBrent Burns: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:34COLJosh Manson: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:57COLGabriel Landeskog: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Drury won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Drury – Kiviranta8:43
xG 0.24–0.02 (93%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- MacKinnon – Nichushkin – Necas6:04
xG 0.14–0.19 (42%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Roy – Bardakov – Brindley4:05
xG 0.25–0.32 (44%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Kadri – Nelson – Nichushkin4:59
xG 0.23–0.40 (37%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar4:04
xG 0.24–0.18 (57%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Kulak – Malinski3:23
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Makar – Malinski2:18
xG 0.01–0.02 (40%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestMcMichael – Sourdif – Leonard8:12
xG 0.67–0.08 (90%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Wilson – Dubois – Protas13:54
xG 0.61–0.41 (60%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Strome – Beauvillier7:27
xG 0.10–0.28 (26%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFehérváry – Sandin10:59
xG 0.88–0.26 (77%)attempts 13–3goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – Chychrun11:10
xG 0.72–0.35 (67%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Chychrun – Sandin3:11
xG 0.23–0.05 (82%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).