Sun, Mar 22, 2026·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Dallas Stars 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 17 | 111 | 115 | 333 |
| DAL | 26 | 03 | 06 | 215 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:01VGKBrayden McNabbAssists: Keegan Kolesar, Shea Theodore · Snap, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 10:55DALWyatt JohnstonPPAssists: Matt Duchene, Miro Heiskanen · Snap, 0.18 xG1–1
- P1 16:48DALJustin HryckowianAssists: Colin Blackwell, Sam Steel · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 9:10VGKIvan BarbashevPPAssists: Brett Howden, Colton Sissons · Snap, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 16:22VGKReilly SmithGWGAssists: Mitch Marner, Pavel Dorofeyev · Snap, 0.23 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:48VGKJeremy Lauzon: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 2:19DALMiro Heiskanen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 7:40DALNils Lundkvist: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 11:41VGKJack Eichel: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 15:52DALMichael Bunting: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:46DALJamie Benn: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Blackwell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Marner – Dorofeyev11:36
xG 1.07–0.38 (74%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel9:33
xG 0.76–0.14 (84%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Dowd – Sissons – Smith4:01
xG 0.26–0.04 (87%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Dowd – Kolesar – Smith2:10
xG 0.11–0.15 (41%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore12:47
xG 1.24–0.38 (77%)attempts 20–12goals 0–0
- Andersson – Lauzon10:24
xG 0.61–0.17 (79%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Andersson2:49
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Bastian – Bäck – Hyry6:02
xG 0.20–0.20 (50%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Steel – Hryckowian9:21
xG 0.38–0.57 (40%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Robertson – Bourque – Johnston10:25
xG 0.62–0.92 (40%)attempts 10–16goals 0–1
- Benn – Duchene – Bunting7:49
xG 0.31–0.68 (32%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLyubushkin – Bichsel9:34
xG 0.47–0.33 (59%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen11:54
xG 0.32–0.86 (27%)attempts 7–20goals 1–1
- Lundkvist – Harley13:53
xG 0.42–1.50 (22%)attempts 8–26goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).