Sun, Mar 22, 2026·Honda Center, Anaheim
Buffalo Sabres 5, Anaheim Ducks 6 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 211 | 09 | 39 | 00 | 529 |
| ANA | 214 | 23 | 115 | 11 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:36BUFAlex TuchAssists: Owen Power · Snap, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 9:27ANAChris KreiderPPAssists: Leo Carlsson · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 12:23ANAJackson LaCombePPAssists: Mason McTavish, Beckett Sennecke · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P1 17:14BUFJosh DoanAssists: Noah Ostlund, Bowen Byram · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 2:35ANABeckett SenneckeAssists: Jackson LaCombe · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
- P2 15:40ANATroy TerryAssists: Tim Washe, Olen Zellweger · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 4:40BUFJack QuinnAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Zach Benson · Snap, 0.07 xG3–4
- P3 10:05BUFOwen PowerAssists: Ryan McLeod · Snap, 0.04 xG4–4
- P3 11:37BUFZach BensonAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Beck Malenstyn · Snap, 0.23 xG5–4
- P3 18:16ANAMikael GranlundPPAssists: Chris Kreider, Leo Carlsson · Snap, 0.12 xG5–5
- OT 1:29ANATroy TerryGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.19 xG5–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:01BUFJack Quinn: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 11:09BUFAlex Lyon: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 13:27ANATim Washe: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:06ANAJeffrey Viel: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:14ANABeckett Sennecke: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:03BUFBowen Byram: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:26BUFAlex Tuch: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Poehling
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestCarrick – Malenstyn – Benson7:04
xG 1.03–0.38 (73%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Norris – Doan – Ostlund7:32
xG 0.33–0.29 (53%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Thompson – Krebs – Doan2:07
xG 0.08–0.12 (39%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Zucker – McLeod – Quinn7:18
xG 0.25–0.57 (30%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Dahlin12:30
xG 1.08–0.86 (56%)attempts 20–13goals 1–1
- Stanley – Metsa8:02
xG 0.20–0.22 (48%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Stanley – Samuelsson2:13
xG 0.05–0.15 (27%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Terry – Carlsson10:23
xG 1.18–0.34 (78%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Killorn – Granlund – Sennecke9:07
xG 0.85–0.36 (70%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
- Harkins – McTavish – Washe7:48
xG 0.56–0.09 (86%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Viel – Poehling – Gauthier9:35
xG 0.14–0.40 (26%)attempts 7–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Mintyukov16:15
xG 1.35–0.43 (76%)attempts 16–15goals 0–1
- Trouba – LaCombe18:45
xG 1.16–0.80 (59%)attempts 20–19goals 1–1
- Moore – Zellweger8:43
xG 0.22–1.33 (14%)attempts 6–17goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).