Tue, Mar 24, 2026·TD Garden, Boston
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Boston Bruins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 92% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 09 | 213 | 213 | 435 |
| BOS | 15 | 08 | 17 | 220 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:04BOSElias LindholmAssists: Morgan Geekie, Henri Jokiharju · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 7:27TORMatthew KniesSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 18:08TORMax DomiPPAssists: John Tavares, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 3:00TORWilliam NylanderGWGAssists: John Tavares, Jake McCabe · Snap, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 5:08BOSCharlie McAvoyPPAssists: David Pastrnak, Pavel Zacha · Deflected, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 19:38TORMatthew KniesENAssists: William Nylander, John Tavares · Poke, 0.83 xG4–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 5:35TORMichael Pezzetta: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:26BOSCasey Mittelstadt: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:15TORDakota Joshua: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:37TORBrandon Carlo: Interference2 min
- P2 7:51TORJake McCabe: Interference2 min
- P2 16:42BOSHenri Jokiharju: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 17:53TOREaston Cowan: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:53BOSNikita Zadorov: Boarding5 min
- P3 3:03TORDakota Joshua: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 3:03BOSNikita Zadorov: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:08TORMatthew Knies: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:56BOSCasey Mittelstadt: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Minten won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Nylander – Cowan12:16
xG 1.20–0.27 (82%)attempts 18–8goals 1–1
- Joshua – Groulx – Maccelli6:19
xG 0.34–0.18 (65%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Lorentz – Pezzetta – Quillan4:31
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Domi – Robertson – Knies8:25
xG 0.17–0.24 (41%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – McCabe11:19
xG 0.68–0.39 (64%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- McCabe – Carlo2:10
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Stecher – Benoit11:08
xG 0.70–0.70 (50%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestLindholm – Geekie – Reichel6:03
xG 0.66–0.38 (64%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Arvidsson – Zacha – Mittelstadt8:15
xG 0.27–0.28 (49%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Jeannot – Kastelic4:53
xG 0.01–0.03 (27%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Reichel – Khusnutdinov – Minten3:10
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAspirot – Lohrei2:09
xG 0.10–0.01 (87%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- McAvoy – Aspirot8:14
xG 0.22–0.23 (50%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Zadorov – Jokiharju10:00
xG 0.83–0.86 (49%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 92% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).