Tue, Mar 24, 2026·Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 03 | 211 | 15 | 319 |
| PHI | 110 | 07 | 19 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:07PHISean CouturierAssists: Luke Glendening, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 0:44CBJMathieu OlivierAssists: Zach Werenski, Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 2:28CBJZach WerenskiAssists: Damon Severson, Mason Marchment · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 4:38CBJMason MarchmentGWGAssists: Kirill Marchenko, Adam Fantilli · Snap, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 17:56PHIJamie DrysdaleAssists: Trevor Zegras, Christian Dvorak · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:23PHITrevor Zegras: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:28CBJKirill Marchenko: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 12:51CBJMathieu Olivier: Interference2 min
- P2 17:24PHIMatvei Michkov: Embellishment2 min
- P2 17:24CBJDante Fabbro: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:24CBJDante Fabbro: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:24PHIChristian Dvorak: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:02PHIOwen Tippett: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Glendening
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestCoyle – Olivier – Sillinger12:13
xG 0.61–0.03 (96%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Monahan – Garland – Lundeström3:44
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Marchment – Marchenko – Fantilli10:34
xG 0.44–0.43 (50%)attempts 13–10goals 2–1
- Jenner – Heinen – Johnson3:20
xG 0.11–0.15 (43%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Werenski17:28
xG 0.86–0.62 (58%)attempts 22–14goals 2–0
- Provorov – Fabbro9:41
xG 0.18–0.06 (75%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Fabbro – Mateychuk2:01
xG 0.06–0.03 (66%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCouturier – Glendening – Hathaway9:32
xG 0.55–0.24 (70%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Tippett – Zegras – Barkey6:51
xG 0.41–0.20 (67%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Konecny – Tippett – Zegras2:02
xG 0.28–0.19 (59%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Grundstrom – Cates – Michkov7:16
xG 0.02–0.06 (22%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Juulsen11:33
xG 0.26–0.05 (85%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Sanheim16:46
xG 0.71–0.69 (51%)attempts 16–16goals 0–1
- York – Drysdale15:08
xG 0.33–0.50 (40%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).