Tue, Mar 24, 2026·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Washington Capitals 0, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 08 | 05 | 08 | 021 |
| STL | 04 | 19 | 214 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:39STLJimmy SnuggerudGWGAssists: Logan Mailloux, Philip Broberg · Slap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P3 14:52STLOtto StenbergAssists: Dalibor Dvorsky, Jonatan Berggren · Snap, 0.26 xG0–2
- P3 19:19STLJordan KyrouENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.81 xG0–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 7:46STLTheo Lindstein: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:45WSHJakob Chychrun: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:12STLJake Neighbours: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:38STLOtto Stenberg: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:38WSHRyan Leonard: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:04WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:04WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:04STLJimmy Snuggerud: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:04STLRobert Thomas: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:34WSHConnor McMichael: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:25WSHPierre-Luc Dubois: Match penalty5 min
- P3 8:25STLRobert Thomas: Interference2 min
- P3 10:38STLJake Neighbours: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Buchnevich won the faceoff against Sourdif
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDuhaime – Lapierre – Miroshnichenko4:09
xG 0.19–0.09 (69%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Strome – Beauvillier3:14
xG 0.11–0.11 (50%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- McMichael – Sourdif – Leonard4:50
xG 0.04–0.13 (22%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Wilson – Dubois – Protas10:01
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 1–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Chychrun10:23
xG 0.41–0.15 (74%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Roy – Hutson8:10
xG 0.31–0.24 (56%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Fehérváry2:07
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestThomas – Holloway – Snuggerud9:26
xG 0.81–0.09 (90%)attempts 18–2goals 1–0
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Neighbours8:42
xG 0.18–0.10 (64%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Toropchenko – Suter – Finley5:49
xG 0.27–0.21 (57%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Berggren – Dvorsky – Stenberg7:00
xG 0.41–0.43 (49%)attempts 5–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestParayko – Lindstein13:05
xG 0.74–0.32 (70%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Holl – Fowler14:07
xG 0.67–0.27 (72%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Broberg – Mailloux12:29
xG 0.70–0.51 (58%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).