Tue, Mar 24, 2026·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
San Jose Sharks 3, Nashville Predators 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 15 | 115 | 110 | 330 |
| NSH | 59 | 16 | 04 | 619 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:34NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Fedor Svechkov, Jonathan Marchessault · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 6:25SJSAdam GaudetteAssists: Shakir Mukhamadullin, Mario Ferraro · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 7:49NSHMatthew WoodAssists: Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P1 11:40NSHRoman JosiAssists: Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P1 12:26NSHLuke EvangelistaGWGAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Brady Skjei · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–4
- P1 16:36NSHBrady SkjeiAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Slap, 0.01 xG1–5
- P2 12:38NSHSteven StamkosPPAssists: Filip Forsberg, Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–6
- P2 17:26SJSWill SmithPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–6
- P3 1:40SJSWill SmithAssists: Igor Chernyshov, Vincent Desharnais · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 17:44SJSKiefer Sherwood: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:24SJSIgor Chernyshov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:14NSHFedor Svechkov: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:14NSHErik Haula: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:49NSHRyan O'Reilly: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 11:16NSHZachary L'Heureux: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Haula won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestGoodrow – Gaudette – Ostapchuk7:43
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Smith – Celebrini – Chernyshov13:16
xG 0.74–0.68 (52%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- Wennberg – Eklund – Graf9:38
xG 0.35–0.42 (45%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Sherwood – Regenda – Misa12:05
xG 0.27–0.38 (41%)attempts 13–6goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestDesharnais – Dickinson11:32
xG 0.33–0.15 (69%)attempts 17–7goals 1–1
- Ferraro – Mukhamadullin13:43
xG 0.28–0.19 (60%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
- Orlov – Klingberg14:35
xG 0.99–0.91 (52%)attempts 20–16goals 0–2
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestMarchessault – Forsberg – Wood11:25
xG 0.48–0.31 (61%)attempts 7–15goals 2–0
- Haula – Jost – L'Heureux10:01
xG 0.28–0.20 (58%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Stamkos – O'Reilly – Evangelista10:35
xG 0.70–0.65 (52%)attempts 9–12goals 2–0
- Svechkov – Kemell – Schaefer10:18
xG 0.02–0.13 (13%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Skjei15:57
xG 0.93–0.67 (58%)attempts 12–14goals 4–0
- Perbix – Ufko9:59
xG 0.45–0.40 (53%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
- Hague – Wilsby16:43
xG 0.18–0.41 (31%)attempts 13–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).