Tue, Mar 24, 2026·American Airlines Center, Dallas
New Jersey Devils 6, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 48 | 09 | 28 | 625 |
| DAL | 16 | 27 | 114 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:12NJDJack HughesAssists: Simon Nemec · Snap, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 8:16DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Thomas Harley, Jason Robertson · Snap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 9:11NJDJesper BrattAssists: Jonas Siegenthaler, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–1
- P1 12:52NJDConnor BrownAssists: Arseny Gritsyuk, Jonas Siegenthaler · Snap, 0.15 xG3–1
- P1 17:19NJDJack HughesAssists: Luke Hughes, Jesper Bratt · Snap, 0.17 xG4–1
- P2 1:11DALWyatt JohnstonPPAssists: Matt Duchene, Jason Robertson · Snap, 0.19 xG4–2
- P2 12:31DALJason RobertsonAssists: Nils Lundkvist, Wyatt Johnston · Snap, 0.09 xG4–3
- P3 6:46NJDTimo MeierGWGAssists: Nico Hischier, Dawson Mercer · Snap, 0.08 xG5–3
- P3 13:08DALMavrik BourqueAssists: Justin Hryckowian, Thomas Harley · Tip-in, 0.08 xG5–4
- P3 19:00NJDDougie HamiltonENUnassisted · Snap, 0.25 xG6–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:46NJDTimo Meier: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:01DALMiro Heiskanen: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:00NJDLenni Hameenaho: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:13NJDBrenden Dillon: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:19DALMiro Heiskanen: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:48DALJason Robertson: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:06NJDDougie Hamilton: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnston won the faceoff against Hughes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestMeier – Hischier – Mercer8:40
xG 0.54–0.10 (84%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Brown – Bratt – Hughes9:08
xG 0.86–0.46 (65%)attempts 6–17goals 1–0
- Bjugstad – Cotter – Tsyplakov4:00
xG 0.21–0.01 (97%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Meier – Hischier – Hughes2:04
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKovacevic – Hughes12:49
xG 1.37–0.35 (80%)attempts 18–14goals 2–0
- Hamilton – Siegenthaler12:48
xG 0.74–0.33 (69%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Dillon – Nemec11:16
xG 0.37–0.29 (56%)attempts 4–13goals 2–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRobertson – Bourque – Johnston12:02
xG 0.67–0.21 (76%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
- Benn – Duchene – Steel2:38
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Steel – Hryckowian8:43
xG 0.16–0.52 (24%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Erne – Bäck – Hyry6:52
xG 0.04–0.57 (6%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Lundkvist – Bichsel6:53
xG 0.10–0.06 (64%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Myers – Harley7:28
xG 0.47–0.59 (45%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Lindell – Heiskanen14:15
xG 0.31–0.46 (40%)attempts 17–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).