Tue, Mar 24, 2026·Delta Center, Salt Lake City
Edmonton Oilers 5, Utah Mammoth 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 18 | 37 | 111 | 526 |
| UTA | 13 | 17 | 08 | 218 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:12UTAAlexander KerfootAssists: Sean Durzi, Ian Cole · Snap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 14:27EDMJack RoslovicAssists: Jake Walman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 11:24EDMMatt SavoieSHAssists: Evan Bouchard, Adam Henrique · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 11:59UTALawson CrousePPAssists: Michael Carcone, MacKenzie Weegar · Snap, 0.21 xG2–2
- P2 12:07EDMConnor McDavidGWGAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Evan Bouchard · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
- P2 15:04EDMJack RoslovicAssists: Zach Hyman, Evan Bouchard · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–2
- P3 19:52EDMConnor McDavidENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.80 xG5–2
Penalties (2)
- P2 11:00EDMZach Hyman: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:12EDMJason Dickinson: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Hayton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestMcDavid – Podkolzin – Savoie13:47
xG 1.02–0.19 (84%)attempts 21–9goals 1–0
- Henrique – Jones – Jarventie6:45
xG 0.24–0.02 (93%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – Roslovic12:40
xG 0.64–0.47 (57%)attempts 18–16goals 2–0
- Dickinson – Kapanen – Samanski9:04
xG 0.11–0.19 (37%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWalman – Emberson14:46
xG 0.57–0.35 (62%)attempts 14–21goals 1–0
- Murphy – Nurse17:07
xG 0.41–0.18 (69%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
- Ekholm – Bouchard17:05
xG 0.80–0.66 (55%)attempts 19–14goals 2–0
Utah Mammoth
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Keller – Yamamoto4:49
xG 0.23–0.01 (94%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Stenlund – Yamamoto4:14
xG 0.24–0.05 (83%)attempts 10–2goals 1–1
- Carcone – McBain – Guenther2:19
xG 0.10–0.07 (60%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Stenlund – Keller2:33
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Schmidt – Marino17:04
xG 0.45–0.50 (48%)attempts 19–14goals 0–1
- Cole – Durzi14:01
xG 0.45–0.72 (38%)attempts 15–15goals 1–1
- Weegar – Sergachev16:47
xG 0.15–0.74 (17%)attempts 9–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
UTA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line UTA is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (UTA − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).