Wed, Mar 25, 2026·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Boston Bruins 4, Buffalo Sabres 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 111 | 113 | 16 | 11 | 431 |
| BUF | 17 | 012 | 26 | 00 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:07BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Fraser Minten, Marat Khusnutdinov · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 15:18BUFJason ZuckerPPAssists: Tage Thompson, Jack Quinn · Snap, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 9:45BOSViktor ArvidssonAssists: David Pastrnak, Nikita Zadorov · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 5:21BUFZach BensonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 5:54BUFJason ZuckerPPAssists: Tage Thompson · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–3
- P3 14:00BOSCasey MittelstadtAssists: Jonathan Aspirot, Pavel Zacha · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–3
- OT 0:38BOSPavel ZachaGWGAssists: David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:21BUFRasmus Dahlin: Cross checking2 min
- P1 13:46BOSElias Lindholm: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:18BOSJoonas Korpisalo: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:18BUFBeck Malenstyn: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:58BUFJosh Norris: Interference2 min
- P2 8:58BOSCharlie McAvoy: Holding2 min
- P2 10:51BOSFraser Minten: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:19BUFLogan Stanley: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:21BOSMason Lohrei: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zacha won the faceoff against Carrick
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestArvidsson – Zacha – Mittelstadt10:09
xG 0.57–0.11 (84%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Kuraly – Jeannot – Kastelic6:30
xG 0.22–0.11 (66%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Geekie – Reichel11:46
xG 0.40–0.52 (43%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Pastrnak – Khusnutdinov – Minten14:39
xG 0.49–0.85 (36%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – McAvoy2:28
xG 0.26–0.06 (80%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Lohrei11:46
xG 0.35–0.41 (46%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Zadorov – Peeke12:30
xG 0.41–0.47 (47%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestTuch – Norris – Ostlund6:14
xG 0.29–0.07 (82%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Carrick – Malenstyn – Benson9:27
xG 0.35–0.21 (63%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Tuch – Thompson – Krebs5:57
xG 0.46–0.33 (58%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Zucker – McLeod – Quinn9:56
xG 0.16–0.36 (30%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestByram – Power16:03
xG 0.90–0.70 (56%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
- Samuelsson – Dahlin13:58
xG 0.42–0.59 (42%)attempts 13–14goals 0–2
- Stanley – Timmins10:34
xG 0.08–0.57 (13%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).