Thu, Mar 26, 2026·Centre Bell, Montreal
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 113 | 06 | 07 | 126 |
| MTL | 16 | 08 | 16 | 220 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:54MTLJayden StrubleAssists: Zachary Bolduc, Lane Hutson · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 12:17CBJDamon SeversonAssists: Boone Jenner, Isac Lundeström · Slap, 0.17 xG1–1
- P3 4:36MTLZachary BolducGWGAssists: Jake Evans, Mike Matheson · Snap, 0.14 xG1–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:18MTLJuraj Slafkovský: Holding2 min
- P2 7:41MTLJake Evans: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:41CBJMiles Wood: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:36CBJZach Werenski: Interference2 min
- P3 14:44CBJBoone Jenner: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Evans
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMarchment – Marchenko – Fantilli11:50
xG 0.94–0.21 (82%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Jenner – Wood – Lundeström7:46
xG 0.48–0.27 (64%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Monahan – Heinen – Garland10:41
xG 0.20–0.30 (40%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Coyle – Olivier – Sillinger8:07
xG 0.05–0.24 (18%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Provorov2:18
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Severson – Werenski16:42
xG 0.58–0.33 (64%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Provorov2:54
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestAnderson – Evans – Bolduc10:59
xG 0.40–0.21 (65%)attempts 6–8goals 2–0
- Gallagher – Danault – Veleno5:58
xG 0.07–0.26 (23%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Newhook – Kapanen – Demidov11:14
xG 0.14–0.54 (21%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský11:50
xG 0.37–0.88 (30%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Carrier – Guhle11:31
xG 0.26–0.26 (49%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Dobson – Hutson2:27
xG 0.01–0.11 (9%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Guhle – Hutson2:34
xG 0.01–0.13 (6%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).