Thu, Mar 26, 2026·Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia
Chicago Blackhawks 1, Philadelphia Flyers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 92% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 09 | 110 | 07 | 126 |
| PHI | 210 | 314 | 018 | 542 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:48PHIAlex BumpAssists: Christian Dvorak · Snap, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 2:33PHISean CouturierGWGAssists: Luke Glendening · Snap, 0.23 xG0–2
- P2 5:14PHIDenver BarkeyAssists: Trevor Zegras, Owen Tippett · Snap, 0.21 xG0–3
- P2 11:11CHIConnor BedardAssists: Anton Frondell, Louis Crevier · Snap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 12:41PHINoah CatesAssists: Matvei Michkov, Alex Bump · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–4
- P2 19:35PHIChristian DvorakAssists: Owen Tippett, Noah Cates · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:40CHILouis Crevier: Interference2 min
- P1 17:42CHISacha Boisvert: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:49PHIMatvei Michkov: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:42CHIArtyom Levshunov: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:38PHIRasmus Ristolainen: Boarding2 min
- P2 6:36PHITrevor Zegras: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:49CHIAnton Frondell: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grundstrom won the faceoff against Nazar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Teravainen – Slaggert – Boisvert5:21
xG 0.32–0.42 (43%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Greene – Bedard – Frondell12:11
xG 0.60–0.83 (42%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
- Bertuzzi – Nazar – Lardis10:08
xG 0.15–0.78 (16%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
- Burakovsky – Donato – Mikheyev7:02
xG 0.26–1.20 (18%)attempts 7–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Del Mastro – Levshunov4:46
xG 0.18–0.16 (53%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Kaiser – Levshunov2:38
xG 0.15–0.15 (49%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Rinzel2:31
xG 0.00–0.02 (22%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestTippett – Zegras – Barkey8:59
xG 1.46–0.44 (77%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Couturier – Glendening – Hathaway9:10
xG 0.77–0.45 (63%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
- Grundstrom – Cates – Michkov9:40
xG 0.54–0.23 (70%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Dvorak – Konecny – Bump8:19
xG 0.68–0.37 (65%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestYork – Drysdale14:48
xG 1.42–0.26 (84%)attempts 23–7goals 2–0
- Seeler – Andrae10:12
xG 1.74–0.63 (73%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
- Ristolainen – Sanheim15:52
xG 1.04–0.58 (64%)attempts 18–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 92% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).