Thu, Mar 26, 2026·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
San Jose Sharks 1, St. Louis Blues 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 09 | 06 | 18 | 02 | 125 |
| STL | 06 | 111 | 04 | 12 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 17:19STLDalibor DvorskyAssists: Dylan Holloway, Jimmy Snuggerud · Snap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P3 5:04SJSAlexander WennbergAssists: William Eklund, Kiefer Sherwood · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- OT 4:57STLDylan HollowayGWGAssists: Philip Broberg · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:40STLPhilip Broberg: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 6:09SJSAdam Gaudette: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:03SJSZack Ostapchuk: Instigator2 min
- P2 3:03STLLogan Mailloux: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:03SJSZack Ostapchuk: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:03SJSZack Ostapchuk: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 9:06STLNathan Walker: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:06SJSDmitry Orlov: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorsky won the faceoff against Celebrini
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestWennberg – Sherwood – Eklund13:18
xG 0.53–0.10 (84%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Goodrow – Gaudette – Ostapchuk5:56
xG 0.41–0.02 (95%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Gaudette – Celebrini2:24
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Graf – Misa9:46
xG 0.30–0.36 (45%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Dickinson15:24
xG 0.69–0.19 (79%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Ferraro – Mukhamadullin12:48
xG 0.57–0.35 (62%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
- Orlov – Desharnais15:07
xG 0.46–0.52 (47%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Suter – Berggren – Stenberg9:55
xG 0.32–0.28 (54%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Holloway – Snuggerud – Dvorsky13:08
xG 0.31–0.46 (40%)attempts 8–16goals 1–0
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Neighbours10:34
xG 0.14–0.37 (27%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Walker – Toropchenko – Finley9:14
xG 0.13–0.44 (23%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Fowler – Parayko5:25
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Parayko – Lindstein13:35
xG 0.24–0.32 (43%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Fowler – Kessel10:57
xG 0.15–0.37 (29%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).