Thu, Mar 26, 2026·Delta Center, Salt Lake City
Washington Capitals 7, Utah Mammoth 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 18 | 28 | 49 | 725 |
| UTA | 311 | 013 | 116 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:07WSHIvan MiroshnichenkoAssists: Hendrix Lapierre, Jakob Chychrun · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 13:04UTADylan GuentherPPAssists: Clayton Keller, Mikhail Sergachev · Slap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 16:59UTADylan GuentherAssists: Clayton Keller, Mikhail Sergachev · Backhand, 0.21 xG1–2
- P1 19:53UTALogan CooleyPPAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–3
- P2 5:01WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Rasmus Sandin, Martin Fehérváry · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 11:28WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Dylan Strome, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 2:43WSHAnthony BeauvillierPPAssists: Cole Hutson, Connor McMichael · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–3
- P3 6:02WSHRasmus SandinGWGAssists: Anthony Beauvillier · Snap, 0.08 xG5–3
- P3 8:06UTAMacKenzie WeegarAssists: Clayton Keller, Alexander Kerfoot · Snap, 0.04 xG5–4
- P3 9:54WSHIvan MiroshnichenkoAssists: Jakob Chychrun · Backhand, 0.07 xG6–4
- P3 19:54WSHAlex OvechkinENAssists: Dylan Strome · Wrist, 0.57 xG7–4
Penalties (19)
- P1 10:59WSHAnthony Beauvillier: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:59UTAMacKenzie Weegar: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:25WSHDylan Strome: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 14:36UTASean Durzi: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:38WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 18:38UTABrandon Tanev: Boarding2 min
- P1 18:38WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:38WSHTom Wilson: Misconduct10 min
- P1 18:38UTABrandon Tanev: Misconduct10 min
- P2 5:40WSHJustin Sourdif: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:30WSHBrandon Duhaime: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:30UTABrandon Tanev: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:14UTAClayton Keller: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:46WSHTom Wilson: Interference2 min
- P3 0:49UTALawson Crouse: Instigator2 min · PPG
- P3 0:49UTALawson Crouse: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:49WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:49UTALawson Crouse: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P3 0:49UTAJack McBain: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against McBain
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Strome – Protas9:30
xG 0.79–0.73 (52%)attempts 14–11goals 2–0
- Duhaime – Lapierre – Miroshnichenko5:13
xG 0.11–0.07 (60%)attempts 4–4goals 2–0
- Wilson – Dubois – McMichael6:05
xG 0.03–0.32 (9%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
- Beauvillier – Sourdif – Leonard8:03
xG 0.46–1.34 (26%)attempts 5–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRoy – Hutson10:58
xG 0.68–0.23 (75%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Chychrun14:22
xG 0.41–1.12 (27%)attempts 12–19goals 3–0
- Fehérváry – Sandin14:42
xG 0.32–1.77 (15%)attempts 10–25goals 2–2
Utah Mammoth
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Crouse – Keller6:12
xG 0.77–0.07 (92%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Schmaltz – Keller3:05
xG 0.26–0.07 (80%)attempts 5–2goals 1–1
- Stenlund – Carcone – Peterka2:39
xG 0.21–0.08 (73%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Stenlund – Tanev2:43
xG 0.01–0.06 (19%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Marino10:02
xG 0.82–0.53 (61%)attempts 10–8goals 1–2
- Cole – Durzi7:22
xG 0.36–0.15 (71%)attempts 10–3goals 0–1
- Marino – Durzi2:08
xG 0.17–0.12 (60%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
UTA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line UTA is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (UTA − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).