Thu, Mar 26, 2026·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Edmonton Oilers 4, Vegas Golden Knights 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 18 | 29 | 010 | 12 | 429 |
| VGK | 08 | 210 | 17 | 04 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:52EDMMatt SavoieAssists: Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 4:09VGKMark StoneAssists: Jack Eichel, Ivan Barbashev · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 7:27EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Vasily Podkolzin, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 14:51VGKMark StoneUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 16:42EDMZach HymanUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 6:21VGKIvan BarbashevAssists: Pavel Dorofeyev, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–3
- OT 3:10EDMEvan BouchardGWGAssists: Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.11 xG4–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:07VGKRasmus Andersson: Holding2 min
- P1 7:59VGKCole Smith: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:59EDMConnor Murphy: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:56VGKShea Theodore: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:13EDMEvan Bouchard: Interference2 min
- P1 0:00EDMJason Dickinson: Boarding2 min
- P1 0:00VGKJeremy Lauzon: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00VGKBrett Howden: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00EDMDarnell Nurse: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:55EDMZach Hyman: Tripping2 min
- OT 1:02EDMZach Hyman: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Marner won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Jones – Jarventie5:03
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – Roslovic9:56
xG 0.38–0.29 (57%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- McDavid – Podkolzin – Savoie12:20
xG 0.42–0.41 (50%)attempts 15–6goals 1–2
- Dickinson – Kapanen – Samanski10:32
xG 0.27–0.44 (38%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard13:42
xG 0.78–0.49 (61%)attempts 20–7goals 2–2
- Walman – Bouchard2:46
xG 0.21–0.16 (57%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Walman – Emberson10:08
xG 0.06–0.19 (24%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Marner – Dorofeyev5:42
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel11:18
xG 0.43–0.28 (60%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
- Dowd – Kolesar – Smith2:59
xG 0.02–0.01 (82%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Hertl – Kolesar – Howden2:53
xG 0.25–0.25 (50%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore15:14
xG 1.10–0.74 (60%)attempts 21–17goals 3–2
- Hanifin – Andersson13:34
xG 0.36–0.08 (81%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Korczak4:50
xG 0.25–0.21 (54%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).