Fri, Mar 27, 2026·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Detroit Red Wings 5, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 310 | 03 | 27 | 520 |
| BUF | 011 | 112 | 17 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:02DETAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Moritz Seider, Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–0
- P1 9:11DETLucas RaymondPPAssists: Moritz Seider · Snap, 0.09 xG2–0
- P1 16:06DETMarco KasperGWGAssists: Emmitt Finnie, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–0
- P2 5:35BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Peyton Krebs, Conor Timmins · Slap, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 15:46DETJacob Bernard-DockerAssists: Patrick Kane, Alex DeBrincat · Snap, 0.09 xG4–1
- P3 16:25BUFRasmus DahlinAssists: Tanner Pearson, Bowen Byram · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–2
- P3 18:17DETPatrick KaneENAssists: Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.61 xG5–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:57BUFJosh Norris: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:25BUFLogan Stanley: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 17:51DETJacob Bernard-Docker: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:09DETLucas Raymond: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:09BUFRasmus Dahlin: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:31BUFLogan Stanley: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:30DETMason Appleton: Holding2 min
- P3 5:53BUFRasmus Dahlin: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:48DETJustin Faulk: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:44BUFTage Thompson: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Kasper – Finnie6:14
xG 0.61–0.07 (90%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Perron – Appleton – Shine3:49
xG 0.05–0.10 (32%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Compher – Larkin – Raymond10:48
xG 0.16–0.58 (22%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- Kane – Copp – DeBrincat10:25
xG 0.29–0.71 (29%)attempts 7–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeider – Edvinsson15:01
xG 0.35–0.28 (56%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Faulk13:08
xG 0.65–0.88 (43%)attempts 8–18goals 1–1
- Bernard-Docker – Johansson8:36
xG 0.09–0.52 (15%)attempts 2–10goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestTuch – Thompson – Krebs8:31
xG 0.90–0.13 (87%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Zucker – McLeod – Quinn8:32
xG 0.21–0.07 (74%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Carrick – Pearson – Malenstyn4:47
xG 0.13–0.21 (38%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Norris – Doan – Benson9:11
xG 0.29–0.67 (31%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Byram2:31
xG 0.47–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Samuelsson – Dahlin11:28
xG 0.29–0.17 (63%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Stanley – Timmins6:54
xG 0.12–0.01 (89%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).