Sat, Mar 28, 2026·Ball Arena, Denver
Winnipeg Jets 4, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 110 | 16 | 25 | 421 |
| COL | 19 | 110 | 04 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:51WPGGabriel VilardiAssists: Josh Morrissey, Adam Lowry · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 8:59COLBrock NelsonPPAssists: Nazem Kadri, Cale Makar · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 2:14WPGCole KoepkeAssists: Jonathan Toews, Elias Salomonsson · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
- P2 18:05COLParker KellyAssists: Josh Manson, Valeri Nichushkin · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 14:49WPGCole PerfettiGWGAssists: Jacob Bryson, Gabriel Vilardi · Tip-in, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 17:51WPGKyle ConnorENAssists: Mark Scheifele, Dylan Samberg · Wrist, 0.68 xG4–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:18WPGDylan Samberg: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:07COLArtturi Lehkonen: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:07WPGMark Scheifele: Embellishment2 min
- P3 8:43COLParker Kelly: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:43WPGCole Perfetti: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:44COLJosh Manson: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:49COLRoss Colton: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 19:26WPGMark Scheifele: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestToews – Koepke – Lambert6:18
xG 0.20–0.02 (89%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Toews – Koepke – Ford2:13
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Iafallo14:35
xG 0.51–0.55 (48%)attempts 11–21goals 0–0
- Lowry – Vilardi – Perfetti11:42
xG 0.26–0.33 (44%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey14:46
xG 0.54–0.32 (63%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
- Samberg – Salomonsson2:28
xG 0.20–0.12 (62%)attempts 1–5goals 1–0
- Morrissey – Salomonsson2:02
xG 0.11–0.05 (70%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas3:48
xG 0.24–0.05 (84%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Nelson – Nichushkin – Necas7:44
xG 0.12–0.04 (76%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Kelly – Drury – Kiviranta4:40
xG 0.22–0.16 (57%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Nelson – Landeskog – Nichushkin2:20
xG 0.02–0.05 (29%)attempts 1–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Malinski11:04
xG 0.52–0.17 (76%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
- Burns – Manson11:35
xG 0.65–0.32 (67%)attempts 18–7goals 1–1
- Kulak – Malinski4:57
xG 0.00–0.04 (3%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).