Sun, Mar 29, 2026·Madison Square Garden, New York
Florida Panthers 1, New York Rangers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 015 | 03 | 19 | 127 |
| NYR | 05 | 08 | 39 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 5:10NYRAdam SykoraAssists: Adam Fox, Noah Laba · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P3 11:14NYRConor ShearySHGWGAssists: J.T. Miller · Snap, 0.15 xG0–2
- P3 16:06NYRAdam FoxENAssists: Will Borgen · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–3
- P3 19:19FLAMackie SamoskevichAssists: Jesper Boqvist, Mike Benning · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:53NYRDrew Fortescue: Delaying game2 min
- P1 19:35FLALuke Kunin: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:35NYRAdam Sykora: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:14FLADmitry Kulikov: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:17NYRJonny Brodzinski: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:14NYRBraden Schneider: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against Luostarinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Tkachuk – Luostarinen10:34
xG 1.10–0.17 (87%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Greer – Boqvist – Samoskevich10:11
xG 0.30–0.08 (79%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Nosek – Gregor – Foote8:14
xG 0.30–0.23 (56%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Hinostroza – Kunin – Reinhardt8:49
xG 0.09–0.60 (12%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling16:00
xG 0.77–0.43 (64%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Benning10:16
xG 0.54–0.39 (58%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Jones – Sebrango13:11
xG 0.53–0.40 (57%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestBrodzinski – Chmelar – Laba8:52
xG 0.66–0.14 (83%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Lafrenière – Perreault11:34
xG 0.18–0.40 (31%)attempts 7–18goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Cuylle – Sykora7:18
xG 0.05–0.69 (6%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- Miller – Sheary – Kartye9:42
xG 0.15–0.82 (15%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobertson – Schneider2:50
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Borgen – Robertson10:04
xG 0.22–0.27 (45%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Borgen – Fortescue3:42
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).