Sun, Mar 29, 2026·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
Montréal Canadiens 3, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 06 | 38 | 04 | 318 |
| CAR | 113 | 014 | 08 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:37CARAndrei SvechnikovPPAssists: Seth Jarvis, Sebastian Aho · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 6:18MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Cole Caufield, Lane Hutson · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 17:32MTLCole CaufieldGWGAssists: Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson · Snap, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 19:53MTLNick SuzukiPPAssists: Juraj Slafkovský, Ivan Demidov · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:52MTLKaiden Guhle: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:43CARNikolaj Ehlers: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:34CARJackson Blake: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:45CAREric Robinson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 0:29MTLNick Suzuki: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:16CARAndrei Svechnikov: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:43MTLIvan Demidov: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Aho
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Danault – Evans – Bolduc7:25
xG 0.22–0.22 (50%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský10:49
xG 0.59–1.24 (32%)attempts 7–21goals 2–0
- Gallagher – Newhook – Kapanen2:23
xG 0.00–0.68 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Newhook – Kapanen – Demidov7:39
xG 0.06–0.90 (6%)attempts 2–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDobson – Hutson2:22
xG 0.23–0.17 (57%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Matheson – Hutson2:27
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Struble – Hutson6:51
xG 0.22–0.48 (31%)attempts 3–12goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestHall – Stankoven – Blake11:57
xG 1.08–0.17 (86%)attempts 24–6goals 0–0
- Aho – Svechnikov – Jarvis10:20
xG 1.01–0.44 (70%)attempts 19–6goals 0–1
- Staal – Martinook – Ehlers9:19
xG 0.64–0.17 (79%)attempts 22–2goals 0–1
- Jankowski – Carrier – Robinson4:46
xG 0.21–0.17 (55%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Chatfield12:41
xG 1.14–0.02 (98%)attempts 26–3goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Nikishin12:54
xG 1.05–0.34 (75%)attempts 22–7goals 0–1
- Walker – Miller13:53
xG 1.06–0.38 (73%)attempts 24–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).