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Ice Lab

Sun, Mar 29, 2026·Nationwide Arena, Columbus

Boston Bruins 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 3 (SO)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 86% of the time.

CBJ winsBOS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
BOS08013312062439
CBJ3130505021325

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:17CBJBoone JennerAssists: Conor Garland · Snap, 0.16 xG0–1
  2. P1 7:45CBJMason MarchmentAssists: Ivan Provorov, Kirill Marchenko · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–2
  3. P1 19:32CBJCharlie CoylePPAssists: Kirill Marchenko, Mason Marchment · Snap, 0.10 xG0–3
  4. P3 6:29BOSCharlie McAvoyAssists: Pavel Zacha, Viktor Arvidsson · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
  5. P3 8:43BOSPavel ZachaPPAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Viktor Arvidsson · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–3
  6. P3 19:49BOSPavel ZachaPPAssists: Viktor Arvidsson · Snap, 0.19 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. CBJ Adam Fantilli stopped
  2. 2. BOS Fraser Minten scored
  3. 3. CBJ Kirill Marchenko stopped
  4. 4. BOS Casey Mittelstadt stopped
  5. 5. CBJ Charlie Coyle scored
  6. 6. BOS Viktor Arvidsson scored
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 10:39CBJDante Fabbro: Roughing2 min
  2. P1 10:39BOSDavid Pastrnak: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  3. P1 17:35BOSTanner Jeannot: Fighting5 min · PPG
  4. P1 17:35CBJErik Gudbranson: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 17:41BOSMark Kastelic: Fighting5 min
  6. P1 17:41CBJMathieu Olivier: Fighting5 min
  7. P1 18:45BOSDavid Pastrnak: Tripping2 min
  8. P2 0:22CBJIvan Provorov: Tripping2 min
  9. P3 8:37CBJCole Sillinger: Slashing2 min · PPG
  10. P3 10:34CBJBoone Jenner: Tripping2 min
  11. P3 13:29BOSCharlie McAvoy: Tripping2 min
  12. P3 19:18CBJBoone Jenner: Tripping2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BOS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CBJ
47% to win53% to win
← BOS attackCBJ attack →
  1. P1 20:00Fantilli won the faceoff against Zacha
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BOSCBJ
39Shots on goal25
5.2Expected goals2.4
85Shot attempts49
32Faceoffs won27
4Power plays2
16Penalty minutes20
21Hits23
14Blocked shots24
14Giveaways16
4Takeaways5

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Boston Bruins

Forward lines

  1. bestLindholm – Geekie – Reichel8:20

    xG 0.76–0.48 (61%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1

  2. Arvidsson – Zacha – Mittelstadt9:05

    xG 0.32–0.17 (65%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0

  3. Kuraly – Jeannot – Kastelic9:26

    xG 0.04–0.18 (18%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0

  4. Pastrnak – Khusnutdinov – Minten11:17

    xG 0.31–0.59 (34%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestMcAvoy – Aspirot15:40

    xG 1.03–0.38 (73%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0

  2. Lindholm – Jokiharju13:03

    xG 0.58–0.45 (56%)attempts 16–7goals 0–1

  3. Zadorov – Peeke14:11

    xG 0.61–0.57 (51%)attempts 18–13goals 0–1

Columbus Blue Jackets

Forward lines

  1. bestJenner – Heinen – Lundeström2:32

    xG 0.12–0.02 (85%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0

  2. Wood – Heinen – Lundeström4:05

    xG 0.10–0.02 (82%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0

  3. Coyle – Olivier – Sillinger2:46

    xG 0.11–0.03 (76%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0

  4. Jenner – Monahan – Garland8:57

    xG 0.54–0.77 (41%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestWerenski – Fabbro16:27

    xG 0.76–0.28 (73%)attempts 21–8goals 1–0

  2. Provorov – Mateychuk2:37

    xG 0.23–0.16 (58%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0

  3. Werenski – Provorov3:53

    xG 0.07–0.21 (24%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CBJ 2.4 xGBOS 5.2 xG
012345P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CBJBOS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 87/100 · #202 of 1312 this seasonSwing 1.84 · 6 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 2% (winner's lowest chance)
BOS 100%5050%50CBJ 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +50 pts

Did the better team win?

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 86% of the time.

CBJ winsBOS wins

Simulated goal difference (CBJ − BOS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).