Sun, Mar 29, 2026·Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia
Dallas Stars 1, Philadelphia Flyers 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 06 | 19 | 03 | 00 | 118 |
| PHI | 04 | 113 | 09 | 14 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:48PHITravis KonecnyPPAssists: Matvei Michkov, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–1
- P2 17:53DALArttu HyrySHUnassisted · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- OT 3:27PHITrevor ZegrasGWGAssists: Cam York, Samuel Ersson · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:34DALWyatt Johnston: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:41PHISean Couturier: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 8:00DALMikko Rantanen: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:27DALWyatt Johnston: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:12PHITrevor Zegras: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnston won the faceoff against Dvorak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBunting – Rantanen – Johnston3:43
xG 0.40–0.15 (72%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Bäck – Bourque – Hyry2:10
xG 0.11–0.01 (93%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Erne – Hryckowian4:28
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Benn – Duchene – Bourque5:46
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Harley – Bichsel2:28
xG 0.07–0.08 (46%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Lundkvist – Harley12:44
xG 0.55–0.60 (48%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen11:21
xG 0.19–0.28 (40%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestDvorak – Konecny – Grundstrom10:49
xG 0.74–0.38 (66%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Tippett – Zegras – Barkey9:43
xG 0.12–0.13 (49%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Cates – Bump – Michkov7:17
xG 0.10–0.32 (23%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Couturier – Glendening – Hathaway9:08
xG 0.34–0.72 (32%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Sanheim13:24
xG 1.07–0.46 (70%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Seeler – Sanheim2:31
xG 0.08–0.08 (49%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- York – Drysdale17:00
xG 0.34–0.36 (49%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).