Mon, Mar 30, 2026·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Vancouver Canucks 2, Vegas Golden Knights 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 17 | 110 | 07 | 224 |
| VGK | 010 | 315 | 19 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:19VANEvander KaneAssists: Jake DeBrusk · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 7:48VGKRasmus AnderssonAssists: Tomas Hertl, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 12:17VANBrock BoeserPPAssists: Filip Hronek, Elias Pettersson · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 17:17VGKShea TheodoreAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Mark Stone · Snap, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 18:34VGKReilly SmithGWGAssists: Brayden McNabb · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 18:50VGKCole SmithENAssists: Jeremy Lauzon, Nic Dowd · Backhand, 0.73 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:18VANLiam Ohgren: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:59VANVictor Mancini: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:54VGKKeegan Kolesar: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 12:43VANElias Pettersson: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:43VGKJeremy Lauzon: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:43VANTeddy Blueger: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:43VGKColton Sissons: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Blueger won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBoeser – O'Connor – Rossi11:15
xG 0.75–0.63 (54%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
- Douglas – Hoglander – Räty2:40
xG 0.03–0.01 (69%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Kane – Blueger – DeBrusk8:18
xG 0.15–0.39 (28%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Pettersson – Karlsson – Ohgren10:06
xG 0.14–0.57 (19%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPettersson – Hronek2:33
xG 0.11–0.05 (69%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Willander17:37
xG 0.70–0.67 (51%)attempts 10–21goals 1–1
- Mancini – Buium2:16
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Hertl – Sissons8:08
xG 0.71–0.09 (88%)attempts 11–4goals 2–0
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel3:47
xG 0.34–0.10 (77%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Eichel – Howden – Dorofeyev9:25
xG 0.49–0.34 (59%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Stone – Barbashev – Marner9:41
xG 0.26–0.13 (66%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Andersson11:07
xG 0.77–0.35 (69%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Lauzon – Korczak9:01
xG 0.38–0.05 (88%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- McNabb – Theodore19:03
xG 0.90–0.62 (59%)attempts 24–11goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).