Tue, Mar 31, 2026·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Carolina Hurricanes 5, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 211 | 011 | 311 | 533 |
| CBJ | 08 | 16 | 111 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:29CARShayne GostisbeherePPAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Andrei Svechnikov · Slap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 16:12CARLogan StankovenPPAssists: Mark Jankowski · Snap, 0.21 xG2–0
- P2 15:14CBJKirill MarchenkoAssists: Zach Werenski, Mason Marchment · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P3 2:07CBJAdam FantilliAssists: Mason Marchment, Kirill Marchenko · Snap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 12:42CARNikolaj EhlersGWGAssists: Jalen Chatfield, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 13:55CARAndrei SvechnikovPPAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Sebastian Aho · Slap, 0.13 xG4–2
- P3 19:13CARJordan MartinookENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.22 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:48CARAndrei Svechnikov: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:19CBJDante Fabbro: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 14:29CBJKent Johnson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:07CBJMason Marchment: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:48CARLogan Stankoven: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:31CBJMiles Wood: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:42CBJMason Marchment: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min · PPG
- P3 19:01CARJackson Blake: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fantilli won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestJankowski – Carrier – Robinson6:47
xG 0.55–0.35 (61%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Aho – Svechnikov – Jarvis8:22
xG 0.41–0.37 (53%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Hall – Stankoven – Blake11:10
xG 0.39–0.42 (48%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Staal – Martinook – Ehlers10:28
xG 0.50–0.75 (40%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestWalker – Miller14:27
xG 1.03–0.61 (63%)attempts 23–11goals 0–0
- Slavin – Chatfield16:19
xG 0.82–0.96 (46%)attempts 19–19goals 1–1
- Gostisbehere – Nikishin10:01
xG 0.18–0.57 (24%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestJenner – Monahan – Garland11:10
xG 0.72–0.35 (68%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
- Marchment – Marchenko – Fantilli11:37
xG 1.12–0.75 (60%)attempts 17–14goals 2–0
- Coyle – Heinen – Sillinger8:27
xG 0.19–0.55 (25%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Wood – Lundeström – Johnson4:11
xG 0.00–0.39 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Mateychuk3:12
xG 0.59–0.05 (92%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Werenski – Fabbro10:58
xG 0.55–0.41 (57%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Werenski – Provorov6:16
xG 0.31–0.19 (62%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).